The equine annual Olympiad returns to Prestbury Park on Tuesday, where over 4 days and 27 races the good and the great of the horse racing world will be on show. Whether you are an owner, trainer, jockey or punter the Cheltenham Festival is a very special time for all concerned. The big question is how special a time will it be for the bookmakers? Hopefully we can expose a few angles and pick a few winners!
Supreme Novices Hurdle
A very intriguing opening to the Festival with a similar story to last year. A well fancied, impressive, British Novice attempting to overcome the unwanted favourite tag and a string of Willie Mullins’ Irish raiders desperate to lower his colours. Last year My Tent or Yours was defeated by an enterprising ride from Ruby Walsh and Vautour, given his staying performance from the front in his recent Grade 1 win looks set to adopt similar tactics. However there are grounds for optimism if, as I am, you are an Irving supporter. Looking at his flat form in Germany he went close in a listed race over 1m 6f and since switched to hurdles is 4 from 4. Beating plenty of decent rivals including Splash of Ginge who since went on and won the Betfair Hurdle. His jumping is probably the only thing to stop him as he can hit a few of the obstacles and with the supreme always a breakneck gallop (which should suit his strong travelling style) it may cause an error or two. He is now a short enough price at 5/2 but I backed him at 6’s a few weeks ago and I’m very pleased with that. He is the most likely winner so will remain my first pick. Josses Hill has probably achieved as much as anything else in the race, is trained by the most successful Cheltenham trainer ever and is still available at 16/1. Thats value for me and he looks certain to run his race and should make the top 4.
3pts Win – Irving
1pt E/W – Josses Hill
There are a lot of people saying it looks a race with strength in depth this year. What I think is there is no Simonsig / Sprinter Sacre this year so what they men is there isn’t standout superstar. However that may not be the case. Simonsig won his 3 cheltenham prep races by a combined total of 99 lengths so was entitled to be 8/15f on the day. Sprinter Sacre was only 46 lengths better of his rivals in his equivalent prep runs to see him 8/11f for this race. In contrast Champagne Fever has had 2 prep runs, comfortably winning his first before disappointing on Boxing day and we havent seen him since. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a superstar and if he were to win the Arkle his cheltenham immortality would be sealed and he is still a novice chaser! Champagne Fever won the Bumper 2 years ago, last year won the Supreme and is this years favourite for the Arkle. If he wins the Queen Mother next year he would inscribed in folklore. However we are getting well ahead of ourselves. His jumping was his achilles heal when jolting on landing at Leopardstown, however 3 things bring me back to the grey every time. One is course form, festival winning experience times two. Two, Willie Mullins is an expert trainer and he interestingly has only CF to represent him (Felix Yonger is technically entered but is heading to the JLT). Which to me illustrates supreme confidence. It will be tough to front run and make all in the Arkle but if any horse can its Champagne Fever. Lastly I watched him school after racing on Sunday and he looked a picture over the fences and was putting metres into Felix Yonger with every jump. Providing he jumps well he will win. I will also have a nibble each way on Valdez. Alan King’s charge looked a tough nut to crack last time out and came from well off a strong pace to cruise home. If CF does tire up I expect Valdez to still be there fighting at the end.
3pts Win – Champagne Fever
1pt E/W – Valdez
Festival Handicap Chase
Hadrian’s Approach looks to have been given a good weight in this handicap, particularly matched against his RSA chase third here last year. He races off a lower mark this year and fits an ideal profile of a horse who won last time out and has had a nice break before the festival. He won when last seen in December, beating a useful field. I think at double figure odds he is a great each way bet, add into the mix his trainer (Nicky Henderson) and Jockey (Barry Gerraghty) and the fact he is now in a handicap he can go very well. Cantlow rates a major danger but his value has gone which leaves me to put a little wager on Vintage Star. I have lost count how many times I watch racing up north and in Scotland and seen Ryan Mania cruise home on a Sue Smith trained horse. She is a shrewd trainer illustrated by her 66-1 Grand National victory and I am prepared to forget Vintage Star’s poor Cheltenham performance last year. Davy Russell is an eye catching booking and at 25-1 he could be a real live outsider.
1pt E/W – Hadrians Approach
1pt E/W Vintage Star
This is the most hyped race of festival and rightly so. It epitomises the very essence of why Cheltenham is so well loved. Those not that into Horse Racing won’t understand that in Ireland and England there are two separate seasons. Most British horses never race in Ireland and a lot of Irish horses don’t venture into races in Britain, until Cheltenham. Cheltenham pitches form on both sides of the Irish Sea and the skill of punters, trainers, jockeys and owners is to decipher the form and work out who will prevail. The champion hurdle is a prime example of the Irish versus the British. Dual champion Hurricane Fly returns alongside Our Conor and Jezki to do battle with young pretenders The New One and My Tent or Yours. The most intriguing thing is none of these have done battle at Cheltenham before except for MTOY and Jezki. In those two we have 2nd and 3rd from last years Supreme, last years Triumph winner Our Conor, last years Neptune winner the New One and last years champion hurdle winner Hurricane Fly. This literally could not be any stronger. Of all the big hurdle races at Cheltenham 2013, Champagne Fever is the only absentee. Wow. There is no point me offering up a definitive selection because everyone has there own ideas about the race. My thoughts are that the British form will hold up. I happen to think the Champion Hurdle since 2006 hasn’t been of a great standard. Winners at 11/1 , 10/1 , 9/1 , 22/1 , 16/1 illustrate this. In fact only when Hurricane Fly has the winner been shorter than 9/1 and when he has won there has been no-where near the class of this years field. I think the Christmas Hurdle pair will probably battle it out again and I have backed The New One, so will stick with him. There is a chance that with Captain Cee Bee supplemented to set a good gallop TNO’s superior stamina may show. This may too play into Melodic Rendezvous hands and I have backed him at 40/1. If you can get a fancy price on his each way it could be worth a small investment.
1 pt Win – The New One
0.5pt E/W – Melodic Rendezvous
Terry Biddlecombe NH Amateur Race
Looking at the stats the horse to back is Corrin Wood. The last 3 runnings have been won by the highest horse on official ratings, however Donald McCain’s charge is likely to defect to the RSA leaving Black Thunder at the top. Paul Nicholls is a top trainer however 1 placed runner of the last 15 means he is easy to leave alone over this marathon trip. Derek O’Connor is a significant booking on board Shotgun Paddy (the next highest rated horse), and listening to Emma Lavelle’s comments “This has been the target for him since he won the Classic Chase at Warwick in January. That was some performance for a lightly raced novice high in the handicap and the way he stayed on over 3m5f suggests the extra distance at Cheltenham will suit him.” he ranks high on the short list. Trainers comments can often be misleading but when Willie Mullins says he is willing to take back out his riding license to ride a horse it is probably worth listening to. Those comments were about Suntiep and whilst he hasn’t shown a lot so far he might be worth chancing at big odds.
1pt E/W – Shotgun Paddy
1pt E/W – Suntiep
Rewards4racing Handicap Chase
I must admit to backing Manyriverstocross a month ago at 20-1 and whilst I am happy as larry with that ticket he has halved in price. I wouldn’t put any off backing him but there must be more value to be found elsewhere. I will wait until the final declarations and then update.
Today Chris Horner became the most successful American road cyclist of the past 20 years by winning the Vuelta Espana (Tour of Spain). Success in this context being the pinnacle achievement of any road racer; a victory in a grand tour. In doing so Horner became the oldest ever winner of a grand tour and by some distance. In fact he was the oldest man ever to line up in the Vuelta when he rolled out on stage 1 so for him to come away with the red jersey signifying the overall winner is a startling achievement. It does however leave one question lingering in the mind…how?
The American superstars that emerged after Greg Lemond’s last Tour De France victory in 1990 have all been shamed. Lance Armstrong most famously as well as former teammate and Olympic champion Tyler Hamilton have been outed for cheating. Blood transfusions, Epo injections, Testosterone tablets; you name it they were doing it to ensure success at the top level. Horner’s victory presents me with only two likely scenarios; 1) Horner a decent pro at best has benefitted from a cleaner sport and has finally been able to succeed when the playing field is more level. 2) Horner, a US cyclist, ex Astana – a team highly controversial in relation to drug use, whose manager was Johan Bruyneel (serial cheat) and team leader was Lance Armstrong (ditto) well you know the rest.
Lets take the negative scenario 2 first in order to finish the article with some form of romanticism for the sport. One argument is that it is inconceivable that Chris Horner was / is clean. The question will only really be raised now he has won a grand tour but this is a professional who was at Astana with Armstrong and Bruyneel in 2009 and when Armstrong left to form his own team sponsored by Radioshack who was number 1 on the list to come with him…Horner. Just a brief dip in to Tyler Hamilton’s book gives you an insight into the way Armstrong treated those close to him and if Horner was considered an asset he would have been doping. He may be clean now and I am not suggesting he has taken drugs to win the Vuelta. In the spirit of looking forward rather than back I am not looking to ‘dig up old graves’ so to speak and accuse riders of being on drugs at a time when the tour winner himself (Contador) was being disqualified for doping, however it is merely a fact of life seemingly that the majority of the peloton seem to have been doping in some capacity. So on the basis that drugs testers seem to be improving and there have been fewer high profile positive tests over the past few years can we dare to dream in this fairy tale story?
I like scenario 1 better for obvious and plentiful reasons however the single most pertinent point I can make on the matter is this. If a 41 year old rider who wasn’t even considered to be the teams leader at the start of the race, a man who has never won a grand tour and only once finished inside the top 10 (before his win) in a grand tour, can now win a grand tour then there are less people cheating and there is more chance for people to win Paniagua (literally translated as bread and water it is a cycling term meaning without taking drugs). The romanticist in me looks at Chris Horner’s long and decent career; a man who never won a national title, never won a classic in fact never finished inside the top 5. His biggest wins were in the Tour of Georgia and Tour of California it just doesn’t scream grand tour winner. His 9th in the 2010 tour de France was the stand out performance of his career until now, so the conclusion could be drawn that in an era when cheating through drug taking and transfusions was rife, Chris Horner rode paniagua gaining little success outside of his native America where he managed to clinch the odd Sea Otter Classic and Tour de Toona…hardly the ambitions of a supercheat! I am doing Horner a minor dis-service, his career is sprinkled with decent Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Amstel Gold, Paris-Nice and Tour De Romandie results. But he is what he is, a decent pro with a decent career. No huge wins, no major spotlight. Until today, a victory in one of the most thrilling grand tours I have watched. A real sporting spectacle.
To the people who say he must have taken drugs I’m sure his riposte would be absolute.
“Actually, look what happens and how great this sport can be when people don’t take drugs”.
In 1994 I painted my face with a Germany flag in the hope Olaf Ludwig might win the 5th stage of the Tour De France. He didn’t, thwarted by Nicola Minali into second place much to my disappointment. My Brother had it right though, brightly clad in the Spanish flag cheering on the indestructible Muguel Indurain to another Tour win. 19 years on it seems unbelievable, given the current state of cycling that I had to disown my own nationality so readily, but with no British rider in the tour’s top 100 in 1994 what else was I suppose to do? How times change!
1996 was a great year for British sport. Nick Faldo won the US Masters, Damon Hill won the F1 title and England won the 5 nations. Us British are seriously spoilt. But is that good enough for the nation who hold sport dearest to their hearts yet harbour an underwhelming pessimism about the actual quality of our sporting ability. Success? in 1996 was typified by our Olympic haul; 1 gold medal, 8 silvers and 6 bronze – 15 medals! In a bare facts comparison the 2012 total reads 29 golds 17 silvers and 19 bronze – 65 medals…50 more! This go me thinking about how far British sport had come in my lifetime and more importantly led me to the conclusion that Great Britain (22nd largest population and wealth according to GDP) is the best sporting nation on the planet.
Lets start with my favourite sports (with the obvious omission of football – please see later in the article for public shaming of the worst run sport in our country.)
Cricket – No ashes win in 1989, 91, 93, 95, 97, 99, 01, 02 then 3 of the last 4 and currently 2-0 up in the recent series. Add to this in the past 5 years England have won the world T20 reached the final of the ICC champions trophy twice and been the best test team in the world. All things I dreamed of whilst being skittled by Akram and Ambrose growing up. We are now at the top of tree and staying there.
Rugby Union – Lions tours haven’t always been successful and neither should I judge this years victory on much, given the weight of the opposition but England have won the world cup and Wales made the semi finals. All of which marks distinct progress from the Lomu bashing we received in my youth.
Golf – From 1996 to 2010 Paul Lawrie was the only British Major winner in golf. Of late they seem to be far more regular; Mcdowell ’10 Mcllroy and Clarke ’11 Mcllroy again in ’12 and Rose in ’13. Add to this mix Mcllroy, Donald and Westwood topping the Golf rankings and the stranglehold Europe have ion the Ryder cup, Golf seems to be riding a similarly lofty wave as other sports.
Cycling – Until 2012 no British rider had ever won the Tour De France in its 98 years! Now we have had 2 in 2 years. Sky ( a british based team) continue to be dominant on the World scene. In Chris Froome Britain has one of the most talented grand tour riders ever and in Bradley Wiggins they have a track and road legend. Never mind the success on the track where British men and women are borderline untouchable, this is another sport where Britain is the current pioneer of progress and success.
This article could genuinely run forever looking at British success. Players in the NBA, Horses winning around the world, rowers dominating regattas, boxers winning world titles. In lots of sports there aren’t many countries that compete; rugby and cricket for example, yet we are always there participating and winning. In sports such as Motor racing where money plays such a huge part, Button and Hamilton are recent world champions. In tennis Andy Murray is the holder of two majors (a last Brit won 1 in the mens game in 1936). In fact there aren’t many sports worldwide that we don’t have a decent crack at and I believe you would be hard pushed to find a nation so successful across the breadth of sports we are in Britain. Come the sailing and the rowing and the cycling at the Olympics we are number 1. All countries have their sporting stars but few can boast such a variety of heroes and heroines across such a diverse demographic; icons who escalated us to 3rd on the medal table at the Olympics and Paralympics. Leaving the Olympics aside we compete and succeed at hockey and swimming and athletics. Obviously not in every meeting we win but it does beg the question has any country got the balance quite as right as us?
Is there any country around the world who has world champions and continued success in Rugby, Cricket, Athletics, Rowing, Cycling, Sailing, Horse Racing and Show Jumping, Boxing the list goes on. Some countries disproportionately fund their sports, others stick to elite programmes but in terms of the most high profile sports worldwide their aren’t many countries who regularly provide more stars currently than Britain, and this certainly hasn’t always been the case. The money that goes into the funding, the way the coaches are trained and the governing bodies are run, surely there is a vast amount of good practice knocking around? Which sadly brings me round to the point of how the one sport in the country is able to continue to fail – Football. How can it fail so badly when other sports have dragged themselves out of the mire and hauled their regimes kicking and screaming into 21st century success. If I was head of the FA, granted I would do a lot of things, but learn something from other governing bodies in Britain would be 2nd on my list after growing a backbone. Only then may we start seeing progress in the so called national game. For if we don’t the hysteria of other successes might just sweep people away!
In the Lion King, Disney’s adaptation of Hamlet, we are told the story of life in an African savannah filled with an array of wildlife and animals. On the current Lions tour to Australia there seems to be a similar array of animals, most notably an elephant in the room; the fact the Lions have been a total disappointment. No one dare say it on twitter or in the press because “we must get behind the boys” however a sporting spectacle which usually sets my pulse raising has provided a standard of rugby that is below par and a brand which is more concerned with not losing than winning. The games have been close and subsequently exciting but it is easy to confuse excitement with satisfaction, we are lucky to be at 1-1 and even luckier David Pocock is absent through injury!
Having said that, I love the Lions, I love the determination and the attitude, the camaraderie and the passion, all of which have been as prevalent in this Lions tour as any before. Tackle after tackle made, bravery and heroics in every minute, however the attacking flair has been non-existent and this has led to tense games decided by a penalty, not by moments of skill and genius. Where is the composure, the class and the skill so regularly associated the best that these rugby proud nations have to offer. In 160 minutes of test match rugby we have scored two tries. The second of which was when Cuthbert (never to be seen again) was set up on a mismatch with a flanker in the centres. Clever rugby yes, but an opportunistic score due to injury. My point being we have created very little, particularly in game 2 where I can’t even remember a moment when we were even close to scoring a try. If Leali’ifano hadn’t been knocked out in the first minute of game 1 we would have certainly lost based on the 14 points squandered by kickers O’connor and Beale, coupled with his excellent record in the second game. It felt a hollow victory in the first game and for me and only an excellent performance in game 3 can win me over. I believe there is one major issue for the lack of quality in the test match performances thus far and it isn’t the scrum, though I would like to make a point on the hotly debated issue. The purpose of a scrum is to restart the game. In the 6 nations this year a scrum resulted in the restarting of the game only 33% of the time!! I don’t know the exact stat but I bet it is around that mark in this Lions test series. Surely it then becomes a farce if the subjective view of a referee is taken to decide which way a penalty is given. This is the most pressing matter in the game of rugby at the moment because at this rate a scrum will obsolete in a few years.
No the biggest issue for the lions is Fear. The weight of expectation is now greater than ever. Travelling fans filling stadiums creating a home atmosphere, immense press coverage, social media support, the lions tour is so huge now that it seems to be effecting the creative mind set of the coach and players. We see the lions kicking penalties and trying to tackle their way to success rather than run some of the exciting plays they have prepared and practiced. Sexton, whilst a player I rate highly has played all of both games and for me is too negative and uncreative. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Farrell come off the bench and make a big impact in the third game with his flat passes and creative angles. It strikes me as the Lions would do well to take a leaf out of Pumba and Timon’s book…Hakuna Matata was their motto. A problem free philosophy of living life with no worries. No expectations. There are some players in red jerseys who look a little like they have the weight of the world on their shoulders and they need their coach to let them express themselves. This is why he has turned to his Welshman. I get it. When in a crisis go to the guys you can trust, but Wales haven’t beaten Australia this decade including 3 games at the Milennium. I have to admit to not buying into the Wales can’t beat Australia hype but I hope the players go out there with freedom and don’t get too tight because of past results. I think Tuilagi could play an important role late in the game. I am happy with Lydiate and O’Brien into the team even though Warbuton looked backed to his best last game. As usual the battle will be fierce up front but the half backs have to play better or we will wind up with the same issues again. Phillips has to step up against Genia.
A last note on the man I haven’t mentioned. For what my opinion is worth the decision ito leave out the best northern hemisphere centre in my lifetime is bizarre. His tackling stats are excellent and defensively he is a rock. His attacking hasn’t been his best but with no battering ram at 12 he is unlikely to be as effective. Roberts is an ideal foil and upon his return O’Driscoll is dropped. Ok he is dropped, harsh, but he can always make an impact from the bench. Use his experience. No, not even in the squad, very odd.
What did O’Driscoll do after being told he was dropped…sulk and moan? No, he led a 2 hour backs training session then went into a school for the rest of the afternoon and did some coaching with children. The man is all class. And on Saturday that is exactly what the Lions need.
First winner on the board and I was pretty bullish about Duntle’s chances so I’m glad she got the job done. I am gutted I didn’t put up Mukhadram having toyed with him and plumping for Red Cadeaux. He very nearly ruined the party in the Prince of Wales.
Little analysis today due to time constraints but plenty of value to be had as usual!
Race 1 – Norfolk
1pt win No nay never @ 5/1
Race 2 – Ribblesdale
1pt win Riposte @ 11/1
Race 3 – Gold Cup
1 pt E/W Earl of Tinsdale @ 14/1
Race 4 – Britannia
.5 pts e/w Granell (40/1)/ So Beloved (16/1) / Queensberry Rules (20/1)
Race 5 – Tercentenary
1 pt Win Chopin @ 6/1 .5pt Straight Forecast Remote to beat Chopin
Race 6 – King George V
1pt E/W Spillway @ 14/1
Not a bad start to the week and whilst no outright winners and only three thirds to our name we are knocking on the door. Gregorian belied odds of 16-1 to run into a place in the first and Pearl Secret followed suit in the second. As I wrote, I suspected Dawn Approach would win and was a decent enough price but I wasn’t expecting it to be quite as close. Some big prices on offer on day two and seeing as I picked the winner in last years hunt cup at 25-1 it only seems fair to repeat the feat.
Race 1 – Jersey Stakes
A tough race to call and the reason being the variety of form to weigh up. Horses are coming into this race from all over the shop; Listed races in England and France, 2000 Guineas, Irish 2000 Guineas it is a real melting pot. However my selection is a Richard Hannon second string and subsequently there is a bit of value. Ninjago won over 6f here in May and apparently ran the second quickest time ever since Ascot reopened. The nagging doubt is the extra furlong but at 25/1 he should make a bold bid.
1 pt each way Ninjago @ 25/1
Race 2 – Duke of Cambridge
The form of Duntle’s Matron stakes success/unsuccess (demoted to second place by the stewards) sets a very high standard. Furthermore I tipped her successfully to win the Sandringham last year and subsequently am not too keen to take her on. She has been racing in higher spheres than nearly all of these and unimaginatively she is my selection.
2 pts win Duntle @ 3/1
Race 3 – Prince of Wales
A fascinating renewal with a slightly under par Camelot bidding to revive his reputation. Al Kazeem’s victory recently can be taken with a pinch of salt given the small field however impressive he looked. The Fugue, in my opinion never gets the job done on the big stage or at least when I support her so she is out of my reckoning. I was inclined to have a little nibble on either Mukhadram or globe trotting Red Cadeaux. Preference is for the latter who stays further than this trip and given Camelot has already been burnt out by Al Kazeem I suspect Windsor Palace will set a good pace and try and get a few struggling leaving Red Cadeux to swoop late. I will back Red Cadeaux each way and also have a little on a Camelot / Red Cadeaux Straight Forecast.
.5 pt each way Red Cadeaux @ 18/1 .5 pt Straight Forecast Camelot to beat Red Cadeaux
Race 4 – Royal Hunt Cup
I could be here all day weighing up the pro’s and con’s of the horses that might win this. A friend of mine will be mortified I am not selecting Stirring Ballad given the profitable success we have had with that horse in the last few years. However you won’t catch me backing any horse at 8/1 for a Hunt Cup. I have picked three horses that are spread across the track to take out the heart ache of backing a horse on the wrong side. Excellent Guest (2nd last year) Moran Gra (4th in the Coventry won by Canford Cliffs) and Field of Dream (4th last year) are drawn 1 / 19 / 33. A decent spread so a decent chance…all at big prices.
.5 pt e/w Excellent Guest @ 16/1 Moran Gra @ 25/1 Field of Dream @ 16/1
Race 5 – Queen Mary
Beldale Memory could prove to be a high class horse and I would like to side with her however there is less value at 7/2 than there is about Ed Walker’s speedster Reroute who beat the Colts on debut and looks primed for another big run at about 7/1
1pt e/w Reroute @ 7/1
Race 6 – Sandringham
With David Wachman taking this prize to Ireland last year with Duntle’s victory it’s hard to see the honours leaving this year. Dermot Weld does not bring runners to Royal Ascot unless he means business and the Khalid Abdullah owned filly Bracing Breeze looks just the sort to improve now stepped up in trip.
1 pt e/w Bracing Breeze @ 7/1
Royal Ascot rolls into town with British sport riding high after a marvelous Merion for England’s Rose and another successful title for Scotland’s Murray. Royal Ascot welcomes a truly international cast again this year further emphasising its ever growing status as one of the worlds most important racing festivals.
Day 1 – Tuesday 18th June
The opening day in terms of pure quality presides over the over 4 days with some of the worlds best racehorses turning out. Animal Kingdom, Shea Shea and Dawn Approach represent the foreign raiders most likely to get into the winners enclosure and inevitably with big reputations comes short prices, the trick if you’re punting is probably to put the 3 in a win treble to prevent any disappointment when 3 short priced favs romp home in the big races.
Race 1 – Queen Anne
Animal Kingdom is the best backed horse of the whole meeting and its easy to see why. Kentucky Derby winner and his last run he won $3.6 million prize pool for scooping the Dubai World Cup. His biggest rivals are Elusive Kate who hasn’t won for a year and Declaration of War who was 5th in the Lockinge…hardly the form to lower the colours of the worlds best! He is now Even money and that is still probably a great price but thats not my game so a bit of each way value could be found with Gregorian. Not been out of the top 2 in his last four starts he does prefer softer ground but I don’t expect the ground to be too quick and that should be just about ok for a decent run out of Gregorian.
0.5 e/w – Gregorian @ 16/1
Race 2 – Kings Stand
Foreign raiders have a decent record in this race but 2/1 over the minmum trip is ludicrously short. There are lots of positive noises coming out of the Reckless Abandon camp and quite rightly given his good run (third) in the Temple stakes. I personally would prefer to back Kingsgate Native at three times the price given he won the race and one of my picks goes to him. The second is Pearl Secret. I have been keenly awaiting his return but it hasn’t come all season and the fact he fronts up his first race in a group 1 at Royal Ascot is slightly concerning. He is also around 14/1 and given his very unexposed profile he is worth chancing each way to return with a bang.
1pt e/w Kingsgate Native and Pearl Secret @ 14/1
Race 3 – Prince of Wales
The big 3 here could produce a spectacular race. Magician and Dawn Approach, winners of the Irish and English 2000 Guineas respectively, clash with Toronado who flopped at HQ. It’s a tricky conundrum; as far as I am concerned Dawn Approach and Magician are very classy and will most likely be a 1-2. At the prices Dawn Approach still looks a decent price however I am happy to sit and watch. Given I am not very open to Trainers excuses when their horses lose I am going to have a cheeky punt on Glory Awaits at 33/1 each way. His second in the guineas is strong form given the horses behind him. He has run well in defeat to Intello subsequent French Derby winner and at about 8 times the price of Toronado its worth a pop he squeaks a place in third.
0.5 each way Glory Awaits @ 33/1
Race 4 – Coventry Stakes
Dawn Approach, Power, Strong Suit, Canford Cliffs, Henrythenavigator. A who’s who of fantastic milers all have one thing in common and that is victory in this race. Basically it pays to stick to the big stables and their first strings. Aiden O’ Brien’s 2 year olds tend to mature a little later and some of his best like Holy Roman Emperor for example missed out here before going on to bigger things. Despite Stubbs looking very impressive in Ireland I am happy to swerve him for what Richard Hughes described as “our coventry horse”. And he should know so for that reason the vote goes to Championship.
2 pts win Championship @ 6/1
Race 5 – Ascot Stakes
A tricky race because lots of horses try this longer trip for the first time. I am sticking with Justification who got the Leviathan tip for the Chester cup but was unlucky in running. O’Brien rarely keeps horses in training unless he thinks they have some good prizes in them and this galloping type may love this extended trip. Ironically Apache is a horse who last year was favourite for the King George V stakes here at Royal Ascot last year. Now with a new stable he is 40/1 for this and dropped to a low mark by the handicapper he may have a chance. His pedigree screams long distances and I think he could be worth chancing.
1 point win Jusitification @ 7/1
0.5 each way Apache @ 40/1
Race 6 – Windsor Castle Stakes
Anticipated can strike a 2 year old double for the Hughes Hannon team and get the vote ahead of Ben Hall who is worthy of each way support.
1 point win Anticipated @ 6/1
0.5 each way Ben Hall @ 16/1
Special Bet – 0.5pt win double Anticipated and Championship @ 42/1
A tremendously busy period of sport is around the corner and with the incredible success of the Royal Ascot selection over the last two years (profit of over 300 points) my head is firmly in the book trying to see how I can pull the winners out the bag.
In the meantime we will have to settle for some ICC champions trophy cricket, Lions Rugby and the US Open. The Lions have looked good but with a tour of this nature time is the biggest killer. As time wears on injuries appear and of biggest interest will actually be who starts at 10 in the midweek team! It can’t be Farrell or Sexton so most likely poor old Hogg who has looked great on the tour so far and surely would be reserve full back gets the graaveyard shift after a decent performance this week deputising for the absent 3rd fly half. I predict a series whitewash although I suspect the first test will be a tight affair. With Pocock missing Australia are hugely weakened and the stand in 6 and 7 are going to have to be awesome to inspire a victory.
The ICC champions trophy is a nice quick format without the dross and subsequently makes for a good spectacle. I backed a WI vs India final and was feeling good about the two teams I think have the most match winners in their team. However WI were a bit disappointing yesterday and quite frankly India are going to take some stopping…barring a good death bowler they have few weaknesses.
I haven’t looked into the US open that much I must admit. To be honest you can over think golf tipping a little. The main protagonists will be there or there abouts. Woods and Kuchar are the only two multiple winners on the PGA tour this year. Don’t look too far from them. However 20/1 isn’t what golf punting is all about and I put a fiver each way a few weeks ago on a player who I reckon will go well at 150/1. The reason was simple Kuchar was romping home in the memorial tournament a few weeks ago but one guy chased him pretty close. He birdied 17, boomed a drive down 18 then hit his approach (not an easy one at all) to about 2 foot for a birdie to put the pressure on Kuch. Kuchar to his credit holed a pressure putt at 17 and a cracker to birdie 18 to win. It was the way Kevin Chappell finished, his attitude, calmness under pressure to still go for his shots which made me sit up an take note. Then I checked his precious US open stats and he finished 10th last year and 3rd in 2011! Good enough for me so he is my sole tip. Back him to lead after first round an each way overall!
Epson Derby and Oaks Preview: Not so much a ‘New Approach’ but a different approach towards selecting a classic winner
It’s classic weekend at Epsom and one of the best meetings in the flat season calendar. In my opinion the hill (the grass area in the middle of the track) is the best free day out in all of sport and if you haven’t sampled derby day it’s definitely the place to start!
This year is an interesting renewal of both the male and female classics but for potentially different reasons
Friday – The Oaks ; the premier horse race for 3 year old fillies (girls)
The horse I really liked initially was Moth. She finished like a train in the 1000 guineas and her stealthy late progress hasn’t gone unnoticed by bookmakers who have her in at 3/1. Ralph Beckett’s Secret Gesture heads the market and while her lingfield win was impressive enough I’m not convinced the lingfield trials produce that many classic winners. There are two coincidental factors about my selection. Firstly she is trained by the same man as the favourite and secondly her sire is none other than New Approach (see later in the article). Talent is a filly with plenty of her name sake and is currently sitting around 16/1 having won a good race at Newmarket over 10f. Obviously Beckett fancies SG more as stable jock Jim Crowley has opted for her but Talent is by no means a pace maker and there on merit. Richard Hughes is a very positive booking and I think she will go well at big odds.
Saturday – The Derby : the colts equivalent for 3 year old male horses only.
I am disappointed that telescope picked up an injury and subsequently hasn’t showed enough to run as I was quite bullish about him a few months ago. If he’d gone to York and won the Dante he would be vying for favouritism. As it is he missed it and the horse who did win it is 20/1! I find this baffling seeing as the Dante is widely regarded as the premier trial for Epsom. These things do go in circles though. Sometimes the derrinstown in Ireland is the big one then the onus changed to the Dante and recently the 2000 guineas seems to be a big pointer. However what the Guineas doesn’t show is stamina and an ability to go around corners. The only reason Libertarian is 20/1 is because he is trained by Elaine and Karl Burke and not Aiden O’Brien. I know big trainers tend to win the big prizes but with Magician not running and Dawn Approach (who’s father New Approach won the derby) having possible stamina doubts to couple his inhibiting price I think an each way punt on Libertarian is a more practical and heart warming selection. Lets hope the New Approach does sire a classic winner at Epsom this weekend but hopefully his work will be done on Friday!
It’s the first classic of the 2013 flat season and it looks set to be a really interesting contest. Dawn approach is the clear champion juvenile but 2 year old form isn’t 3 year old form and we haven’t seen him yet this year so at the prices I would prefer to wade into Toronado who couldn’t have been more impressive in the Craven Stakes. He has trained on and looks very impressive. Factor in that Hannon’s current classic crop are very strong with Sky Lantern and Olympic Glory for this one to be the best means he is very good.
In a similar vain Hot Snap laid down the marker for the ladies when breezing past her rivals in the Nell Gwyn. She did look to idle in front a touch but Henry Cecil mentioned this horse as one to watch in Frankel’s absence and it would be a surprise to see her bolt up on Sunday.
I would be fearful of Aiden O’Briens horses given his remarkable guineas record and his 3 horses in the guineas are all intriguing but don’t quite look classy enough to lower Dawn Approach or Tornado’s colours. However it is an Aiden O’Brien 5 year old who has taken my eye for a future engagement and that is Justification in the Chester Cup. Countrywide Flame the favourite has very strong form – none least his 3rd to Hurricane Fly at the festival, Overturn produced a victory at Chester after placing in a champion hurdle. However Justification off a featherweight has the class to possibly run in a group 1 later in the season and if that is the case winning a handicap off this low mark shoudl be a doddle! He is entered into the Gold cup and the Coronation and whilst this doesn’t mean he is a group 1 one performer the sheer fact he has only had 6 races and is a 5 year old and is still in training is very intriguing. Yeats didn’t develop til late having been favourite for the Derby and whilst Justification may not be the new Yeats he may very well be a bargain at 7-1 to win a handicap.
2pts win Toronado – 2000 Guineas @ 5/2
2 pts win Hot Snap – 1000 Guineas @ 11/4
2 pt win double Toronado and Hot Snap @ 12/1
2 pts E/W Justification – Chester Cup – 7/1