Bo Van Pelt could go close at a lofty 110/1

The most pressing matter on the SL agenda is the upcoming US Masters golf which takes place at the beautiful Augusta National Golf Course in Georgia this weekend.  The only major where the venue remains the same and subsequently repeat winners can be a regular occurrence; Nicklaus (6) Palmer (4) Woods (4).  However with Tiger Wood’s stock in decline over the past 5 years and with him not winning the Masters since 2005 it has left the door ajar for some big breakthrough wins for new kids on the block; Trevor Immelman, Zach Johnson, Charl Schwartzel and last years hero Bubba Watson.  Gambling on the majors was a good punt because despite Tiger’s dip in form his Masters price was always too short and subsequently there was a lot of value around and whilst it is true again this year he probably warrants the general 4/1 quote as the World Number 1.  If Tiger brings to the table the game he has showed so far this year he is going to be very difficult to beat however he still hasn’t won a big one since his return and it is continually worth taking him on until he does.  I think he will definitely win the US Open this year but this is the Masters and it is a weekend unlike any other, so lets see if we can adopt Mowlgli’s bold approach in Kipling’s The Jungle Book and bravely tame the tiger.

Pick 1 – Bo Van Pelt – Price 110/1

The first selection is based on one stat but one which I think would be foolish to overlook. To be fair it’s just the score he posted in his last competitive round here. A 64 which at one point looked as though he was going to break the course record. He was 8th 2 years ago and 15th last year, he clearly can go very low. Vise a vie 110/1 each way is way to big.

Pick 2 – Jason Dufner – Price 70/1

I think Dufner is one of the most underrated of the American newbies. He is a very good player who’s main drawback is he has challenged in several majors and seemingly choked. With a Ryder cup under his belt and a bit more experience after winning twice last season he knows how to get it done. There is some suggestion Augusta isn’t great for him but he has made the cut both times he’s played and of the young American guns he’s who I’m keen to side with.

Pick 3 – Branden Grace – price 200/1

This is a left field selection on first glance on the basis that only Fuzzy Zoeller has won his Augusta debut but Grace is a man who loves winning. 4 victories on the tour last year and I just love the way when he gets a lead he pulverises fields. Wining is a habit and if he gets into a good position I would back him to hang in there. South African’s are flying at this venue. Immelmann, Oosthuizen and Schwartzel (won on only 2nd start) have all gone well in the last decade and Grace at 24 could spring onto the scene in a big way at a big price. Even if he makes top 5 the lure of 50/1 to do so is well worth siding with.

Pick 4 – Ian Poulter – price 50/1

Gutsy poults has shown Augusta is a course he likes. Two top tens in the last three years and an ever growing appetite for major success Poulter can build on his WGC wins with the major victory he craves.  I actually think Augusta is his best chance of a major.  The atmosphere and occasion are right up his street and he has really got to grips with the greens the last few years.  I think he will go well again this year and although I probably fancy his pal Justin Rose a little more, at double the odds and a seemingly steelier character Poults gets the vote.

On top of the four picks I have a few selections for first round leader.  Getting off to a flyer in the first round but not having the consistency to win a major is a situation many players flirt with.

Bo Van Pelt – 80/1.  Shot a 65 in 2011 and a 64 last round he played here. Could spring back on the scene at a venue he likes.

Nicolas Colsaerts 80/1. A birdie machine and went very low in one round at the Ryder Cup.  Quiros showed a few years ago that a big driver and European form can get you off to a strong start and Colsaerts fits the bill on debut.

David Toms 150/1. Had a mini resurgence last year and a veteran of this course.  He has shot a 65 here and these days seems to play well in majors for the first two rounds and fades away, so this could be another of those times.

SL

A couple of big price place money last week was topped off by Mull of Killough’s barnstorming late effort which saw him defeated in the Lincoln by a nose. Poor Jockey-ship was definitely to blame, but none the less a great start to the flat season. It was one year and 84 article posts ago that Sports Leviathan began and what better place to mark the anniversary than Augusta. There is always something very special about 1 year anniversaries and with Golf’s most beautiful gem at the heart of this weeks article lets hope we can bag a birthday winner.

There is lots of talk about this years Masters being the most exciting ever and it is easy to see why. Of the main protagonists World Number 1 Luke Donald won last time out, World Number 2 Rory Mcillroy won a month ago and his last three tournaments read 2-1-8 in finishing positions. Lee Westwood lies 3rd in the rankings and his recent major record has seen him finish in the top three, five times in the last nine majors. Newly promoted to World number four, Hunter Mahan won last week in Houston, so he is in great shape. World number 5 Steve Stricker has already won this year and world number 6 Martin Kaymer announced his appearance with a lake skimming hole in 1 this week to delight the bamboozled crowd. Just for good measure Tiger Woods fresh from his exceptional victory at Bay Hill is world number 7, returning champ Charl Schwartzel is at 8 and 9 and 10 are filled by ultra consistent Justin Rose who won last month in the WGC Cadillac and Webb Simpson, who although hasn’t won yet this year was a two time winner on the PGA tour last year and this year looks set for an exciting masters debut.

Now the top 10 in the world rankings are obviously there for a reason. Two of last years major winners are in there and their recent form is the yardstick for others to live up to but with the Masters being the only major to return to the same course each year course form becomes a key factor. For example players that draw the ball have an edge here, left handers are pretty successful too (well one in particular). It is also important to be long off the tee but not as important as the necessity to have an excellent short game. Zach Johnson showed that you don’t have to attack and destroy the courses par 5′s to be successful, however I suspect this year, with the course being tweaked since last year (the Par 5′s have been made slightly more accessible with more accommodating greens to attack from your second shot) scoring on the par 5′s will be crucial. My main point here is “horses for courses” therefore rule out Mickelson (form figures of 7,3,CUT,12,6,7,3,3,1,10,1,24,5,5,1,27 !!) at your peril. 9 times he would get your each way money paid out and 3 times he pays out the winning stake too. Very impressive. Although less impressive Angel Cabrera boasts 5 top tens with 1 victory and several other respectable finishes. Fred Couples has 12 top 11 finishes in his illustrious career as well as green jacket to boot. He is currently 250-1 and a repeat of his 6th 2 years ago would see a huge 50-1 place payout!

So who to choose? A) It looks a great tournament B) The field is very strong C) There are lots of players in form, so it is a bit of a minefield but there is lots of value around. I am not a huge believer that you have to be long off the tee to be great round Augusta. Sure it can help and makes approach shots easier if you can reach flat spots in the fairway with ease of the tee, however a quote from Mcillroy made me think. When asked about his shocker at 10 last year they asked would he play it the same? He replied “I have practiced it several times using Driver and 3 Wood. When the weather is nice a 3 wood will be fine as the ball runs on but if the rain comes I will have to boom the driver to be in an ideal position for my second shot” . If it does get wet, length off the tee will come in to play, certainly for at least one round and the bigger hitters will have the advantage of easier approach shots into the par 4′s and the ability to make eagles or at least have cheap birdies on par 5′s where others with less length may not.

Pick 1 – I have backed Tiger Woods at 8-1 before Bay Hill because I could see a very real opportunity to lay him if he won and subsequently shortened. However his stats at Augusta are frightening and I can’t put anyone off backing him. Since he won this for the first time his finishes read – 1,8,18,5,1,1,15,22,1,3,2,2,6,4,4. In the last 7 years he has paid out every time on the place money and has won this 4 times in total. The last few year he hasn’t been at his best yet he hasnt finished outside the top 6. This year he is getting somewhere close and his PGA tour stats this year are incredible. Tiger is back and although I would love Rory or Donald to go close (and I think they have the game to win) if Tiger steps up he is going to be difficult to hold back.

Pick 2 – Bo Van Pelt is my idea of a new name on the scene who has a bright future in the majors. This is down to one facet in his game. His putting. On initial view his driving and iron stats aren’t outstanding. 23rd in driving distance means he can strike a long ball and 64th in driving accuracy leaving him overall ranked 6th in driving on the tour, shapes up pretty nicely. Couple that with the fact he leads the whole tour in Birdie average and Par breakers is a real plus particularly on the tricky Augusta greens. Furthermore he leads again on Stokes gained-putting and has the 2nd overall best putting stats. He also carded an outstanding 59 with Sean O’Hair in the Tavistock cup, he is clearly in form. Long off the tee, red hot putter, 8th last year on debut – 100/1. Yes please.

Pick 3 – Trevor Immelman is a past winner and regularly features in the final round at this event. He has had a pretty bad elbow injury which is a concern, as is the fact he hasn’t won since his masters victory in 2008. However he has good course form finishing in the top 5 twice and in the top 15 the last two years showing he plays the course well. He is also 100/1 and could go well at a big price.

Pick 5 Bubba Watson – 40/1 The course should suit his huge right to left hitting and if his putting holds up he can go very low.

What is also quite fun is to back people at big prices to be leading after the first round. Often players start really well but fizzle out and the list below are players to keep an eye on who may be quick out the traps.

1) KJ Choi – 50/1 First round 66 last year and 67 the year before. Starts well and often fades. 50/1 looks big.

2) Brandt Snedeker – 60/1 First round 69 last year and someone who will consider himself a challenger this year.

3) Alvaro Quiros – 80/1 Led after the first round with a 65 last year and if long driving is rewarded he could again be up there

4) Sang Moon Bae – 100/1 – Livewire of a youngster who has the ability to score low, is in an exciting group and is worth a go at a big price.

5) Johnson Wagner – 100/1 – Very good tour stats and second in FedEx cup points. Leads the whole tour on total birdies and total eagles so if anyone knows how to pick up shots its this man.

SL

What do Darren Clarke and Charl Schwartzel have in common?  Both have won majors this year…true , both are represented by Chubby Chandler (major winning extraordinaire) … also true, however what is also interesting is that both players were tipped up by Sports Leviathan’s newest contributor at huge odds.  In the case of Darren Clarke recently one website quoted that “nobody would have picked Clarke pre tournament” but that is exactly what Apollo did and then went on to hammer the bookies with a follow up win on Simon Dyson in the Irish Open.  Named after the God of the Sun lets hope Apollo can shine some light onto the fourth and final Major of the golfing season.

With Darren Clarke still shaking off his post- Open hangover our attention now turns to the final major of the year, the USPGA championships. Golf expert and Sports Leviathans newest contributor Apollo takes you through his guide to the course and those likely to be challenging come Sunday evening.
The Course:

The Atlanta Athletic Club in Georgia is the host course this year after last holding the championship in 2001 when David Toms triumphed with a 15 under par winning score in good scoring conditions. The course has been re-designed since then and is a much tougher test as a 7467 yard par 70 layout.

In 2006 course designer Rees Jones tightened many fairways and added extensive fairway bunkering. The greens were also changed to bermuda grass which will mean this week the greens will be as firm and fast as you will ever see.  Shot shaping will be essential on this course if you want short approach shots into the green. Those who lay back at the corner of the many dog legs will face long approach shots into small firm greens. Although a few holes require a fade bias the course as a whole will suit the player who can draw the ball. The course will also favour a high ball flight as the firm greens will make holding them difficult.

Raw power will not be enough to tame this beast. Tight fairways, thick penal rough, and extensive fairway bunkering coupled with the firm, small greens will place a huge premium on combined accuracy and power off the tee.  The winner this week will need to strike the ball purely, as recovering from wayward shots will be extremely difficult. Holding the greens out of the rough will be nigh on impossible, and the thick rough around them will make scrambling tough.

Nerves of steel will be required as players will face many slick downhill putts with subtle breaks. Approach shots into the green will need to be carefully positioned to leave uphill putts which can be attacked rather than downhill putts which will need to be treated with caution.

The par 3’s could be crucial this week. Three of the courses four ‘short’ holes are over 200 yards, including the 260 yard par 3 15th! Accurate long iron shots will be needed to hold the greens, and with water all around there is always the possibility of drowning your chances of victory with a big number on one of these crunch holes on Sunday.

The big guns:

Luke Donald has seemingly been in contention every time he’s played this year, but this golf course might be too much of a test for his mercurial skills of recovery. Despite being world no.1 Donald is neither long nor straight off the tee, and at 7500 yards with thick rough, fairway bunkers, and small greens Donald may hit one too many tee shots off line to be able to contend on Sunday.

Of the world’s top 4 players, the course appears to favour Westwood the most. His precision ball striking and accurate driving should help him keep big numbers off the card and give him a fighting chance. However, with scrambling likely to be tough, I still have some reservations about Westwoods chipping, and this could cost him come Sunday. Although I would love to see him win the major he surely deserves, at 16/1 (Betfred) I don’t think he’s good enough value.

Kaymer hasn’t been in scintillating form this season, and has gone back to his natural fade shot shape in an aim to recapture his form. He has shown signs of form of late but with this course favouring a drawer of the golf ball he may find himself blocked out on a few tee shots, and ultimately may not be in a position to hit enough greens to contend.

Next I come to McIlroy. Whilst his first 3 rounds at the Masters, and all 4 rounds at the US Open were a joy to watch, he is not a prolific winner on tour. He had won only once on the PGA tour, and once on the European tour prior to his US open victory. Fair enough the course layout does seem to suit Mcilroys imperious ball striking and right to left shot shape, but my belief is that the lightning fast greens will show there are still a few demons in his putting stroke which will leave him a few strokes short.

Others to watch out for:

It wouldn’t be a true golf article if I failed to mention him.  Tiger Woods is in my eyes the greatest player of all time, (partly due to me being too young to ever see Nicklaus or Palmer in full flow) but I still think he is a long way from being back to his best and will be some way off this week. If he were a higher price I might see it as worth an each way bet, but at his current 25/1 (PaddyPower) he is not good value.

Steve Stricker stands out as the no.1 putter in the world at the moment, and his recent form is excellent. Out of 14 events this season he has 2 wins, and 12 top 25 finishes to his name, including a good showing at Firestone last week (14th).  He is also one of the best around out of fairway bunkers which may be crucial this week. My only question mark on Stricker is his driving. He has decent driving accuracy stats but nowhere near the top 50 on tour, and he is not a long hitter either. If he has a good week with the big dog you know he will hole enough putts to be in contention. At 30/1 (PaddyPower) I think he’s good value.

I must mention Adam Scott after his great win in the WGC event this week. He ranks very highly in total driving and ball striking (9th and 14th) so will suit the Atlanta Athletic Club course. With Stevie Williams on the bag who has already shown his experience in guiding Scott through the final round at Firestone he has probably his best ever shot at a major.

However, despite his recent newfound putting confidence with a long putter, he still ranks low in the tours putting stats and he may find pace control tough on the lightning fast greens. Although I would not be at all surprised if he lifts the Wanamaker trophy on Sunday, his win last week has brought his price right in to 22/1 (Paddypower) which in my eyes isn’t great value in such a stellar field.

Outsiders I fancy:
2001 champion David Toms sits 4th in driving accuracy and 2nd in greens in regulation this year on the PGA tour. He is also in the top 30 in ball striking, and finished tied 9th last week at Firestone which proves he has put recent injury worries behind him. Long established as one of the best putters in the world he may well be a good bet to win back the title he won on this very course in 2001. The only issue may be that he lies at 178th on tour in driving distance. I still however think his accuracy and putting will more than make up for this slight lack in length and will be backing him at 66/1 (PaddyPower).

Webb Simpson may not be a name you recognise unless you follow the PGA tour, but this year his form has been excellent. In his 18 events this year he has 14 top 25 finishes. On the PGA tour this year he lies 4th in scoring average, 14th in ball striking, and 18th in total driving which all bode well for this week.  He also plays with a natural draw shape which will help him. There are still question marks over his ability to hole enough putts to get over the line and win, but he is a great value each way bet at 100/1. Unibet.

The high towering draw of Ryder Cup star Peter Hanson might be just what’s needed to capture the title. The Swede had 4 solid rounds at Firestone last week, without a single round over par. He has struggled slightly with his driving this year, but seems to have now sorted that out, and he always hits a lot of greens in regulation. As the winning score could be much nearer the even par mark than the 20 under mark I feel he has a good chance.  At 150/1 (Unibet) I think he’s great value for an each way bet.

My picks

Steve Stricker WIN @ 30/1 PaddyPower
David Toms e/w @ 66/1 PaddyPower
Webb Simpson e/w @ 100/1 Unibet
Peter Hanson e/w @ 150/1 Unibet

Apollo

Horse Racing this weekend really focuses on Sunday  at the Curragh with the best renewal of the Irish Oaks I can remember.  The  1000 Guineas winner (and Oaks 3rd) Blue Bunting locks horns with the her conquerors Dancing for Rain and Wonder of Wonders.  Throw the Ribblesdale Stakes winner Banimpire into the mix and we are in for a real cracker.  I personally really like Wonder of Wonders chances but at the price may just be a passionate observer.

Today I have had a few bets although nothing of real confidence, more speculative, however there is one horse who catches my eye.  Hot Prospect ran in Workforce’s Derby last year and finished 9th.  That puts his benchmark pretty high and since then he has acted best on soft ground.  Trained by Roger Varian who continues to perform well (although not many winners of late) I think Hot Prospect who is down in class and loves soft ground will go well today.  Newbury’s weather forecast was for heavy rain all night and not much let up today.  The ground is still apparently good to firm but I suspect with a bit more rain this may be subject to change and I like his chances at around 12/1.

Also I am very pleased with Martin Kaymer‘s progress, I hope his metronomic and consistent approach prevails in tricky conditions at Royal St. Georges.  He is now 6/1 favourite so our 25/1 is looking fantastic right now!

Advice -

1pt win – Hot Prospect 10/1 – General (Market support has seen him backed in since I wrote the above article)

SL

I am not sure whether my obsession with selecting Americans is borne out of the fact if any of the leading Europeans win I will be happy anyway, especially if it is Donald or Mcillroy.  However at 12/1 and 8/1 respectively there isn’t much value.  Both are in superb form and can’t be discounted however Unibet amongst others are running money back specials if Mcilroy wins and that looks like the market for me.  Back to the US obsession and I think the main reason my selections are from over the pond is due to their outstanding record in Britain; in the last 16 years it has been won by a Yank 11 times.  The other 5 have come from either Ireland or Southern Africa barring Paul Lawrie’s win in 1999, so the Brits record leaves a lot to be desired.  Having said that European golf is in peak form and the Americans have recently struggled to get the job done in the majors.

Subsequently I have a range of selections at varying prices so here goes:

Martin Kaymer 2pts Win @ 25/1 general –  I can’t get his unbelievable Alfred Dunhill links performance out of my head and although he isn’t playing on those courses this year I think he has been targeting this tournament all season.  He is a class performer and 25/1 looks too big.

Zach Johnson 1pt each way @ 150/1 Unibet – A great result last week with 4 rounds under 70  including a last round 65 to finish 3rd.  His irons are solid and straight and his putting is top class.  He also has won the Masters so knows how to win big tournaments.

Matt Kuchar 1 pt each way @ 50/1 general –  Played well last week in Scotland ending on -13, has a rock solid game and if it all clicks into place he could be a serious contender.

Jim Furyk 0.5 pts e/w  @125/1 Paddy Power-  I can’t let Jim sip by at 125/1.  He is 14th in driving accuracy on the PGA tour which will be essential at Sandwich.  Furthermore his scrambling and greens in regulation percentages are solid and above average.  He could be a classy player waiting to hit form again.

Edoardo Molinari 0.5 pts e/w @ 200/1 Unibet – A very solid weekend in Scotland for Molinari who has always played Links golf well.  His form has been patchy but at 200/1 he could also be an each way shout in fact I have backed his brother too at 125/1 I think they are great and although Francesco’s putting has been a weakness his tee to green is rock solid and who knows an Italian might just keep Seve’s European flag flying high.

SL

I will start with the Horse Racing.  Last week was pretty successful however this Saturday was poor, mainly due to a lack of time spent on the research and in the future my selections will come with the standard point ratings associated with most tips.  All my selections don’t carry the same amount of confidence so to ensure clarity that will be a little tweak to the selections.  My first main frustration on Saturday was Delegator’s flop in the July Cup which is likely to be due to the going and he is still one to keep an eye on in the future when running on Good to Firm ground.  Despite this horse losing me all the profits I made when backing him at Haydock it often pays to follow certain horses and I suspect he will bounce back.  My second frustration is that two horses I confidently selected at Royal Ascot (both didn’t win) bolted up on Saturday at good prices.  Brae Hill (11-1) and Green Destiny (6-1) both went unnoticed by me (despite the fact I have been trying to keep an eye out for the latters next run).  A lack of time and research contributed to this; did nooo get an agenda for that sort of sloppiness.

Sandy Casar and Thomas Voeckler brought some much needed success in the TDF.  Corinthians article was spot on and I was confident Casar would feature in the breakaway either Saturday or Sunday.  He got a flat tyre near the finish on Saturday but obliged on Sunday and with him and Voeckler trading near the 50/1 mark at the start of the day any followers would have had an each way touch as they finished 2nd and 3rd.

Selections for the British Open will be up next week.  I was thrilled to see SL’s favourite golfer shoot a stunning 62 today to win the Scottish Open.  I found this a very weird tournament.  Obviously the weather played havoc but the course was surprisingly easy and I’m not sure we can read lots into the links form of the competitors.  Having said that a few of my pending selections performed well which shows at least they were in some sort of form.  I found it funny to hear Luke Donald pre tournament say he was maybe not looking to win the tournament, but just like after the Par 3 at Augusta he will be thrilled to have won and won’t care much for superstition or doubters saying he has peaked to early.  Sandwich will be much tougher and he will be now too short to back, but I’d love him to win.

Adding insult to inury

Innocuous injuries seem to be plagueing my selections.  Milos Raonic was 200/1 and playing well at Wimbledon before a freak accident put his tournament to bed.  I was ready to select David Toms and sad to say have backed him already to see he has withdrawn from the Open next week with a wrist injury.  Chris Horner (a confident selection at 100/1) has had to retire from the Tour De France with injury too, although this is becoming very common place as I will investigate further.

This year Le Tour operators deserve a lot of credit for the route this year.  It has resembled the Ardennes classics at times and has made the tour exciting and at times unpredictable.  Cavendish claims it is to negate his and HTC (his team) dominance on the flat stages.  To be fair it has stopped the frequent bunch finishes so reminiscent of the first week of the tour, though it hasn’t stopped the Manxman  claiming two stages so far.  You would think that less bunch sprints would lead to less crashes but it has been the complete opposite!

So far this year :

Wiggins (Collar Bone) , Boonen , Brajikovic (Collar Bone) , Horner (Concussion) , Vinokourov (Femur) Van Den Broeck (Collar Bone) , Zabriskie (Wrist) and Garate have all retired through injury.  Of these Cyclists, five would have been in serious contention for the podium. There normally is one or two that have to retire but it is crazy this year and it is a real shame so many have had to retire from the race, let alone have to go through the rehabilitation  process of getting over a serious injury.  It has mainly come because the favourites are bunching at the front trying to stay out of trouble, but in turn that has caused congestion and crashes at high speeds near the front of the pack, inneviatbly ending in disaster.  ”It is just bike racing” said Wiggins philosophically, however this has to be becoming a little too commonplace and hopefully the problems will be solved amongst the riders.

Whilst these casualties seem to be acceptable as a result of the nature of bike racing, what is totally inappropriate is the behaviour of some of the motor vehicles.  What happened today was the worst thing I have seen from a following car.  The French TV channel RTL was following the race when they tried to overtake the lead breakaway only succeeding in wiping out Hoogerland and Flecha.  Hoogerland ended up wrapped around a barbed wire fence and Flecha (who was hit full on by the accelerating car) was patched up at the side of the road.  Miraculously both riders finished the stage.  Add this atrocity to the Sorenson crash involving a Motor Bike, the spectators and press need to realise it is not about them and the riders safety has to take priority.  All these incidents have proved to me is how super tough these Cyclists are.  Chris Horner finished the stage with concussion and a broken nose.  He later asked what happened and couldn’t remember even getting back on the bike! This is one of the most grueling sporting events in the world.  Hundreds of miles on a bike, day after day for weeks on end, with little rest, over the largest mountains in Europe.  The speeds, intensity and stamina on show and required to succeed in this sport are above and beyond almost any other sporting event and I tip my cap all of them.

No cheats have been uncovered this year (I’m not sure if this is good or bad) and lots of crashes seems to have taken the  attention away from Cycling’s ugly side.   Despite being an enthralling TDF, I genuinely think it has the potential to be one of the best ever, though sadly some of the man protagonists won’t be there to slug it out.

SL

The Oaks is the fillies premier race of the season and whilst Wonder of Wonders may yet prove to be the best horse, she wasn’t up to the task of reeling in our girl Dancing Rain. A superb ride from Johnny Murtagh saw a front running performance of perfection, judging his fractions expertly. Dancing rain was tipped up on this site the day before the Oaks and she actually drifted out to 20-1 before the start, a real treat for SP backers. In my article I also wrote about the chances of 25-1 Izzi Top ( the eventual 3rd) so I was chuffed to bits to see her in the frame too. Ultimately it was a game victory for the Haggas trained filly who showed her stamina and galloping front running style was just what was required to land the spoils in quite convincing fashion. Get in!

If the Oaks saw a perfect front running ride then the Derby couldn’t have seen a more opposite tactic employed. Monsieur Barzelona the 19 year old rookie sat stone last on Pour Moi before flying home to win in a stirrup jangling photo. The image of the young jockey standing up in the saddle yards before the line will ensure the 2011 Derby will be remembered for years to come. It was a stunning race, a fantastic turn of foot from the french colt and a calculated ride by the youngster, who clearly had the best horse, but at one point looked like he might not get up.  However as the line drew close Treasure Beach grew weary and Pour Moi cleaned up for Fabre, Barzelona, the Magniers and Sports Leviathan. Another second for Aiden O’Brien, who recently, hasnt quite managed to win the big prize of the Derby ( his horses a la Dylan Thomas often cone on greatly for their Derby runs so their progress will be interesting).  And the irony of the winning owner will be lost on nobody (especially at coolmore!)
Having advised Pour Moi ante post without being sure he would run in the English Derby I think the owners were probably the driving force behind his appearance at Epsom. Furthermore he needed every yard of the 12 furlongs to claim a victory, so the Prix de Jockey Club (French Derby) may have been too short for him over 10 furlongs. It clearly was an inspired decision from SL and Andre Fabre!
Overall a fantastic, in fact, a classic weekend and with Johan Edfors placing at 50-1 in the Welsh Open too it was happy days all round in the sports leviathan camp

With the two big classics of the flat season taking centre stage this weekend I feel sad that for the first time in many years I won’t be present to cheer the winners home from the hill inside Epsom’s famous track.  With my derby selections already posted up as Aiden O’Brien’s Seville and Andre Fabre’s Pour Moi I am happy to stick with these two.  I am still not convinced by the Queen’s Carlton House.  He is a short price due to his Dante win but that race was very slowly run and didn’t suit Seville at all.  The extra distance will help our selection and although Carlton House clearly has a good turn of foot it will remain to be seen how well he travels around Epsom and whether he can reproduce that acceleration off a stronger gallop.  Only time will tell.  Pour Moi is now a confirmed runner and that interests me.  Having advised him at twice the price he is now I am very pleased he will take his chance and feel happy with our two representatives.

Already Advised

Seville – Win @ 7/1

Pour Moi – Win @ 10/1

The Oaks is also a tricky conundrum.  The main protagonists are mainly borne out of wins or runs over a mile.  Blue Bunting, Havant and Misty for me all ran in the Guineas with Misty for me going on to win in the Irish version.  Blue Bunting did win in striking fashion and looked like she could do with a further distance however another 4 furlongs could be a little too far looking at her Dams pedigree.  The Oaks trials make up the others who top the market and although both Wonder of Wonders and Zain al BoIdan won comfortably I was not really taken by their victories and so am going to look elsewhere.  If you are unsure about the top market leaders for a classic it is often prudent to look to ‘hot’ maidens or listed races, so described because of the quality of the horses in it is high. The Newbury Listed trial had six previous winners out of eight with the most impressive in my eyes being Dancing Rain.  Although she was second she would certainly have won over a longer distance (the oaks is two furlongs longer).  She looks gutsy, set to stay and relatively unexposed.  Add to this the positive murmurings coming out of William Haggas camp following her gallops I like the look of her at 14/1.  Her conqueror Izzi top is currently 22/1 and at first I thought this looked the value bet, but the market speaks volumes as do the yards whispers about her, couple with this her pedigree and the fact she probably would have beaten Izzi top over further Dancing Rain is selection to land the spoils in the Oaks.  As a little saver I also would dabble in the market with Stan James that quotes Dancing Rain at almost the same price but without the impressive favourite Blue Bunting.  This may also be a smart play.

Epsom Oaks – Friday 3^rd June

Dancing Rain – E/W @ 14/1 – General price

Dancing Rain – Win @ 12/1 – Without Blue Bunting (Stan James)

I had mixed emotions last weekend in the BMW golf.  Having tucked in Lee Westwood I was gutted he didn’t get the job done.  But every cloud has a silver lining and SL’s favourite golfer Luke Donald was the only other player I was pleased to see win.  He is now rightfully the World number 1 and playing sublime golf (although he wasn’t at his best at Wentworth, the way he saved himself on the back 9 of the 3rd round was outrageous).  If only Westwood had holed that 8 footer on the last he wouldn’t have gotten in to the mess of the play off where he took Donald on in a short game competition.  There was only ever going to be one winner.

A final pointon Johan Edfors – He is 50-1 for the Welsh Open golf and for a man in form, who has recently qualified for the US open, I think that is worth a dabble each way.  Happy punting!

Johan Edfors e/w @ 50/1 – Welsh Open

Starting with Football, it appears Carlo Ancelotti has finally reached his stop on the Oligarch express with the news breaking of his departure – hardly surprising given Abramovich’s merry go round style of employing managers.  With the topic of comebacks high on the agenda and in light of Gus Hiddink claiming today he has been working at Chelsea as an “advisor” for the last two years it may be the canny Dutchman who returns to the helm at the Bridge.

Survival Sunday didn’t fail to disappoint, with team’s fortunes changing more times than Chelsea’s managers.  In fact with 3 minutes to go Wolves were down (and the Leviathan was smiling) but late goals from Hunt and Pavlychenko condemned Birmingham and Blackpool to the Championship despite the Tangerines heroic efforts in Manchester.  Both sides have had an awful end to the season with Birmingham only picking up 8 points after their Carling cup victory against Arsenal, ending with 5 losses and a draw from 6 games.  On New years’ day Blackpool were 8^th!  They only picked up 14 points for the remainder of the season as they produced streaks which saw them lose 5 in a row and then draw once and lose 5 out of 6 games; sadly for Ollie’s band of zesty warriors that is relegation form and their inability to reach the hallowed 40 point mark cost them dear (despite only spending 22 days in the bottom four).  In contrast Wigan were 2-0 down to West Ham last weekend with 30 minutes to go – Half an hour to save their season the commentator noted.  They not only won that game 3-2 but then beat Stoke to survive, somehow Martinez has led a monumental revival and their achievement ranks as one of the premiership’s greatest comebacks.

In Horse Racing a past selection came back in style today.  Misty by Magic was a fancy of mine in the 1000 Guineas but didn’t seem to enjoy things at Newmarket – She had never raced in Britain before, having had all her previous success in Ireland and France.  She was clearly below par on Guineas day and reversed a 17 length defeat to stablemate Together with her victory in the Irish 1000 Guineas today.  There is talk of a tilt at the Oaks but I think she may go to the Diane (French Oaks) at Chantilly instead.  The race is 2 furlongs shorter than the English Oaks, so there will be no issue with her not getting home, and the way she swooped late today illustrates the step up to 1 mile and 2 furlongs looks ideal.  Either way Aiden O’Brien’s string are in great form and that bodes well for Seville, who although disappointed in the Dante will hopefully be spot on for Epsom.  Given his price remained unchanged after the Dante the news regarding him must be fairly positive.   I will be doing a more in depth look at the Derby after final declarations but I am very intrigued by Pour Moi and think, if a confirmed runner ,will shorten in price a fair bit, so it may be worth a little ante post punt to ensure the best odds – He is currently best priced 10/1

A note too on Ian Poulter – He was asked before the Masters why he couldn’t transfer his Ryder Cup form to tournament play.  Poulter said that he was due a win and felt he was swinging the club really well, citing the camaraderie and nature of matchplay events better suited his mental approach.  Poulter seems to thrive in the match-play environment and he duly succeeded in the first matchplay event since his quote!  Sometimes it pays to believe what you read in the press.

The Heineken Cup final on Saturday saw another impressive comeback – the biggest in Heineken cup final history.  Northampton led 22-6 at the interval until Johnathon Sexton ruined the Saints party.  ”We were shellshocked and needed leaders. I said comebacks happen in finals – I knew we could come back.” Said Sexton who, by all accounts was inspirational.  Sexton used Liverpool’s Turkish turnaround as motivation and it clearly worked.  Leinster replied with 27 unanswered points to lift Europe’s premier club trophy.  Having the right mental psyche in situations like this is vital in maintaining your self belief.  The best performers are the ones who can ‘chalk off” their errors and mistakes and not let them effect their future performance.  This is crucial in golf and the match-play format makes it easier to do this.  I would suggest Poulter needs to develop his mental dexterity to ensure he can produce a good swing consistently over 4 days and not let his mistakes get the better of him before he is going to win a major, though is his getting closer.  In rugby and football the half time break provides the ideal forum for this psychological regrouping.  Teams often come out galvanised in the second half and an improvement in performance is immediately evident as a result of a change in their psychological approach – conscious or not .  The process of resting and regenerating our bodies mental capacity is crucial in succeeding in professional sport.

And how else could I end an article about comebacks but mention Bernard Hopkins.  The new Light Heavyweight champion of he world is old enough to be David Hayes father but give him credit; he was impressive against a very disappointing Jean Pascal and at the ripe old age of 46 is the oldest man to hold a world boxing title.  Sometimes the idea of running around like a teenager again fills the mind with excitement, but it seems Hopkins isn’t just thinking it; he’s living it and fair play to him.

Anyone with any interest in golf knows that this week’s tournament at Sawgrass is ‘the one with that awesome hole!’ In fact if you ask most amateur players which 1 hole they would most like to play, the 17^th at Sawgrass  would be right up there.   My first memory of this hole was from a walkthrough guide from Fuzzy Zoeller “This 132 yard par three is the courses signature hole and a wedge should be the club of choice for your approach” Wise words from the stalwart.  I pictched it on the memorable island green and holed the birdie putt for a deuce.  I will always look back and remember Sawgraas with fond memories.  However I found the course quite hard and since my SNES has been out of action I haven’t revisited it.  Still…EA sports’ PGA Tour golf – What a game!

Sawgrass through Fuzzy Zoeller’s eyes or not, is a beautiful, picturesque and challenging Pete Dye course and plays host to the player’s championship – often referred to as the 5^th major.  However this year that label seems to have be lost on a few of Europe’s top players who appear not to be in the mood to cross the pond and play the great course.  Lee Westwood and Rory Mcillroy have dropped the shoulder, which although disappointing, is an illustration of how far British golf has come when this is a major talking point.  In the past the Americans would regularly snub large European events and it seems at last Europe can kick back and decide a week in the Florida sun just isn’t for them and the fact people care illustrates the progress British and European golf has made over the last decade.  Not to mention the recent win in the Ryder cup and the fact 50% of the world’s top ten are from Britain and six of the ten are from Europe.  This compared to ten years ago when only Darren Clarke and Sergio Garcia hit the worlds top ten, illustrates the great strides our new batch of talent have made and supports the contention that the Europeans are gaining the edge in world golf.

So who is going to win?  As has been the case with a lot of PGA tour events this year winners have been at very long prices.   I am hoping a few of my selections can go well for us this weekend and potentially give us some lasting interest over the 4 days at Sawgrass.

Zach Johnson – A man in form (6^th last week after finishing with 3 rounds in the 60’s) and I think with his winning record on the PGA tour along with his solid current play 66/1 is a big price.

I really like the chances of Adam Scott and Hunter Mahan.  They have both saved their best golf for some big tournaments and with Scott being a past winner I think 33/1 is decent each way value.

Brian Davis – Would be a huge surprise at 150/1 but played well last week and often plays well in some of the PGA tour’s big tournamnets.  He came second twice on the tour last year at Colonial and the Heritage and also had a 5^th place here at Sawgrass in 2009.

Sergio Garcia – I also can’t resist but have a bet on the charismatic Spaniard.  Sergio will have been crushed by the death of Seve however he is the type of man to be galvanised by the sadness and I think with his game coming into shape and at the price of 60/1  there wouldn’t be a player on the tour who would begrudge him the win.