Before I preview today, a tip of the cap to the two stables I highlighted on Tuesday as likely to come to the party at Royal Ascot.  John Gosden I quoted as being able “to win with the stable cat” and he really put himself on the Royal Ascot map with a treble yesterday.  I thought Gatewood would win and I am pleased for William Buick who has to be one of the top jocks around at the moment.

Roger Varian picked up his first Royal Ascot winner since taking the reigns as a trainer.  Eton Forever ran a cracker and Varian was understandably chuffed, he has no more runners at Ascot now so he managed to score with his last runner of the week.

We however have one more day left so lets see how we get on…

Race 1 – Chesham

Jalaa has been the subject of some very positive noises by the Richard Hannon team and it is with some confidence that the selection is tipped up in the first raced of the day.  Most of these horses have very little experience and it remains to be seen who emerges in the future.  Hannon is normally very shrewd with his two year olds and in Jalaa he might have a reals star.

1pt E/W win Jalaa @ 4/1

Race 2 – Hardwicke

As soon as I saw the runners for this card Aiken leapt off the page.  Great form, hot stable, course, distance and ground all suit.  He has a huge chance.  Sea Moon is an obvious danger and I suspect these two will battle it out, however Aiken doesn’t seem to know how to lose and after an impressive run in France this could turn out to be his best victory yet.

Advice

1pt E/W Aiken @ 4/1

Race 3 – Diamond Jubilee

Black Caviar is clearly very very good and I am not silly enough to oppose her, however I suspect her dominance and the quest to defeat her might drill some horses into submission leaving some longer priced horses to sneak a place.  If Mayson or Tiddliwinks were running today I suspect their price would be around 20/1 possibly even shorter given their victories this year.  The horse who chased them home in his last two races finishing second both times was Jimmy Styles.  He may not be a group 1 performer but he is in form and 125-1 looks enormous to run into a place.

Advice 1pt e/w Jimmy Styles @ 125-1c (or rather than wasting the money on the win bet possibly backing to place on the tote or Betfair might be more advised)

Race 4 – Wokingham

Well this is a very tricky race indeed and having picked out Deacon Blues last year the pressure is on!  Annoyingly one of my selections has been “pricewised”.  Waffle chased Deacon Blues home last year and surely a repeat would see him win the race this year.  His price has subsequently contracted and there seems less value in backing him in his recent run of form.  The shortlist has been quite long and difficult to wittle down. 4 and 5 year olds tend to dominate this race and as Deacon Blues proved last year there is often a group class sprinter hiding in the handicap company.  Medicean Man is that horse this year but he isn’t hiding very well.  His impressive 4th in the kings stand on Tuesday shows he can mix it in Group 1 company!  That will easily be good enough to win this even if he is up a furlong but has no penalty and I still think I will pick him as the “class” horse to potentially triumph.  The draw has been very important this week and in particular where the pace is.  The rumour is the race is likely to be less of a cavalry charge and more circumspect and that won’t suit the hold up horses.  I though Secret Witness was a huge price at 40-1 but he might have already shown his best this year.  All the horses I like are drawn high which is concerning as I like one in each group.  The high horses are consitent performer Mac’s Power who will win won of these one day!  His price again is shorter than I would like so we will just have a little saver on him.  Scarf is my high pick and Colonel Mak is my low pick.  I toyed with several of the high numbers but in the end a front running performance from Scarf might land the spoils despite my reservations on Godolphins sprinters.  Colonel Mak is a tentative selection but his low draw and high price tick a few boxes.

Advice

1 pt Win Medicean Man @ 14/1

1 pt Win Mac’s Power @ 14/1

0.5 pt E/W – Colonel Mak @20/1

0.5pt E/W – Scarf @ 16/1

Race 5 – Duke of Edinburgh

Anatolian was game in defeat to James Fanshawe’s High Jinx last time out and that form looks worthy of support.  As does Spanish Duke who has only run twice at this trip and was most impressive latest when running third at Epsom to Fiery Lad who was considered but the ground looks to be against him.

1 pt E/W Spanish Duke @ 14/1

1 pt E/W Anatolian @ 11/1

Race 6 -

In the last Overturn is a horse I really admire and very versatile but this trip but be slightly too long for Donald McCain’s gutsy dual purpose winner.  Simenon is clearly well respected after hacking up over course and distance on Tuesday.  Swingkeel won this last year and clearly has been primed for this again and he might warrant some each way support. Preference is for Petara Bay on the basis his form suggests this isn’t the race for him yet he is being widely tipped up and his price is shorter than I would expect.

1pt win – Simenon @ 7/2
0.5 pts E/W – Petara bay @ 14/1
SL

t has a been a tough Royal Ascot so far however Prince of Johanne – Advised at 20/1, restored some pride today to land the 4th tip 2 days.  The 3 previous winning bets were priced up at 6/1 , 15/2 and 16/1 (all placed) and it was nice to see a big price winner cruise home today.  On a personal note the Royal Hunt cup is one of the trickiest races all season so I was chuffed to nail the winner.

A few of my friends have been a little dismayed with the tipping this week and I can understand their sentiments after such a good year last year.  A ten pound bet on all my horses tipped up so far yields a profit of £50 so far so although sometimes it feels like a scattergun approach the profits are coming…Keep the faith

Day 3 – Ladies Day

Race 1 – Norfolk Stakes

I don’t have a strong opinion in this race as the two year olds are always a tricky prospect, especially over the minimum trip.  Last year my biggest regret was not backing Lolly for Dolly when everyone else in my family seemed to on the basis of my sisters nickname.  No such jibes this year as I am getting on Mister Marc.  My son is named using the less common spelling and subsequently the Hannon trained horse received my support on its winning debut.  Hannon is in great form and Mister Marc’s reappearance saw him run into Dawn Approach who won well yesterday so that certainly hasn’t put me off, if anything its made his case stronger.  The drop in trip might be a concern however he was leading after 5 in both his first races so he clearly has good speed…C’mon Mister Marc!

1 pt win – Mister Marc @ 7/1 Stan James

Race 2 – Ribblesdale

I am a huge fan of The Fugue and considering his unlucky run in a unsatisfactory oaks I would be shocked if she doesn’t prove she is the real deal tomorrow.  I suspect Vow will follow her home however The Fugue looks gutsy and full of class and she will probably get her ground tomorrow so all in all a confident vote.

3pts win – The Fugue @ 2/1  Stan James

Race 3 – Gold Cup

I must admit to having backed Fame and Glory to win this at 3/1 a long time ago and I have no intention of changing my view.  Opinion Poll who chased him home last year appears to have improved and in Saddlers Rock I see a really decent test for Fame and Glory.  At the current prices I think Saddlers Rock looks value at 9/2 and think a combination tricast on Fame and Glory / Saddlers Rock and Opinion Poll could be a play here to keep things interesting.

0.2 points – Combination Tricast

Race 4 – Britannia

Another very tricky race but we struck gold with Prince of Johanne so lets try and decipher another taxing 30 runner field to find a winner!  The shortlist looks like Fast or Free, Trader Jack, Born to Surprise, Frog Hollow and Bronze Angel.  The latter two get the for the following reasons.  Frog Hollow ran a decent race last time out in the Silver Bowl at Haydock.  He was hampered on the run in and the cut in the ground might help this horse travel a bit better than the firm ground did that day.  The one I am quite sweet on is Bronze Angel.  Marcus Tregonning is canny trainer and is the sort of an to bring horses to the boil at the right time.  Bronze Angel won last time out beating Lady’s First at Doncaster.  The same Lady’s First ran today in a class 1 listed handciap and finished 3rd.  Bronze Angel runs tomorrow in a class two handicap and is 20/1.  That seems very fair to me and thats where my money will be.

1pt E/W Frog Hollow @ 11/1 Betfred

1pt E/W Bronze Angel @ 20/1 Betfred

Race 5 – The Tercentenary Stakes or Hampton Court 

Kahlid Abdullah is mob handed with good horses and although my preference is with Starboard I can’t help but be swayed by a horse of much longer odds.  Energizer finished a close 4th to Caspar Netcher in the German Guineas.  Although that form hasn’t worked out brilliantly this week it is still group level form in the book and at 14/1 I think he is very overpriced and worth a punt each way.

1pt E/W Energizer @ 14/1

Race 6 – King George V

The race on the card is proabably the most competitive and subsequently the most difficult.  I am shocked Rougemont has held his ground taking these horses on with in most cases over a stone more on his back.  The two reasons I ca think are 1) Richard Hannon really thinks he can win and subsequently Richard Hughes – No 1 jock gets the leg up.  Or posssibly more likely is 2) it allows improving Pilgrims Rest to creep in at the bottom of the handicap off 8 stone a stone and a half lighter than his stable mate and for that reason Pilgrims rest gets the verdict at odds of 16/1/

1pt E/W – Pilgrims Rest @ 16/1 Stan James

SL

Nahrain set to shine on Day 2 of the Royal Meeting

As I explained in the last post this preview may have several limitations:

1) It is being written on Monday night as tomorrow evening is clearly earmarked for more pressing matters, therefore the selections, particulalrly in the big runner fields will have no insight into draw bias.

2) I’m not 100% sure of the going, I suspect it will be on the easy side of good.

3) Some of the selections may be non runners.

4) I will have no idea about how my selections ran in the first day, as that is tomorrow, so by this time I may have had a series of losers and the reader volume may be slim!

However if you can cope with all of that here’s the preview of day 2:

Race 1 – Jersey Stakes

Regular readers will know my feelings on Roger Varian’s horses and he could well have a double on his hands on day 2 of the Royal Meeting.  Aljamaheer is in great form winning well in a listed race last time out at Newmarket.  There are a few interesting things with this form.  Firstly the horse beaten into second was The Nile a typical John Gosden imrprover.  The Nile has been chosen by William Buick as his number one ride in the St James Palace, choosing him over yestedays selection Fencing.  The Nile is clearly held in high regard and Almajaheer saw him off comfortably last time out.  The concern is the ground .  Hannagan tweeted today he has a huge chance unless the ground is too soft.  I am going to post him up as the selection as I still believe he can get the job done.  In light of the selections potential frailties a saver is advised on Boomerang Bob.  This fella will like the cut in the ground and races most effectively on softish ground over 7furlongs.  You can put a line through his last race where he didn’t act that well on firm ground.  That leaves his 1 length loss to Caspar Netcher a subsequent group 2 winner in Germany.  That form looks pretty good against some of these market contenders.  He ran in the guineas finishing 9th of 14 on his side 11th overall.  Before the guineas he was being touted as a live outsider.  Some of the form of the main protagonists isn’t that great and Boomerang Bob at 20/1 looks good value.

Advice -

1pt E/W Aljamaheer @ 15/2 Paddy Power

1pt E/W Boomerang Bob @ 20/1 Paddy Power

Race 2 – Windsor Forest

In my opinion this looks a cracking little race with some exciting fillies in the line up. Emulous’s victory in Matron stakes is probably the stand out piece of form in the book beating Irish 1000 Guineas 1 and 2  Misty for Me and Together impressively.  Other horses to mention are Chaichamadee who bolted up at Lingfield on Trial day but that race hasn’t worked out and the opposition look relatively weak in hindsight.  Captivator ran with aplomb behind Izzi Top in softish conditions at HQ however the two I really like are Clinical and Nahrain. The vote confidently goes to the latter.  Clinical impressed me at Epsom but the Nahrain is a seriously classy horse who is probably the star of Roger Varian’s stable.  She is versatile winning over 8 and 10 furlongs on ground Good to firm, good to soft and good.  Her group 1 win in France was excellent albeit over 2 furlongs shorter than this.  The fear is first time out this shorter test might be too much but there is no way Varian would chance his prize asset by putting her out fresh if she wasn’t ready. Granted she is probably being aimed for another tilt at the Fillies and Mares turf where she lost her unbeaten tag narrowly last term.  But I think she looks overpriced and hope she can return in style.

Advice -

3 pts Win – Nahrain @ 9/2

Race 3 – Prince of Wales

Cirrus Des Aigles disappointing defection has made this race much less interesting.  It looks likely So You Think will win again.  I am never that impressed with SYT but it usually manages to find a way to win which I suppose is an admirable quality.  I can’t really make my mind up as the form is very confusing.  Planteur is the one I quite want to be on but he is terribly inconsistent and doesn’t seem to run well at Ascot. On last years form he is held by SYT but he did beat him to 3rd in the Dubai World Cup.  Since then he has ran close to Cirrus Des Aigles.  Overall at 10/1 I’m not 100%.  I would probably rather back last years 3rd Sri Putra who is 50/1.  The field looks distinctly average for such a big race and whilst there could be a big race in Planteur or even a huge improvement from Farhh lets have a small stakes punt on Sri Putra running into a place again.

Advice

.5 point e/w Sri Putra

Race 4 – Royal Hunt Cup

I could write an essay on horses chances in this race.  The one I really like is Dimension but there is literally no value around.  10/1 sounds decent but in such a difficult race I can let him go begrudgingly.  He may even have a poor draw we don’t know… I am keen to search out more value.  I am going to select one from a high draw and one from a low draw.  Four year olds have a great record in this race winning all of the last 5 runnings.   Cai Shen has the draw of number 1, is 4 years old and is trained by Richard Hannon.  Ticks in all boxes and gets the nod at 16/1.  Prince of Johanne is in the form of his life and the neck loss to Fury looks great form coming in here.  20/1 looks a good price and thats my second selection draw on the other extreme in 33.  Because of Cai Shen’s lack of experience in big runner handicaps I am going to put a 3rd selection up and seeing as some firms are paying up to 5 places it can still be profitable.  Mull of Killough is the final selection after an excellent second in the Lincoln.  I backed him that day and he couldn’t have been more unlucky as the jockey really cost him the race.

Advice

1pt E/W – Cai Shen @ 16/1

1pt E/W – Prince of Johanne @ 20/1

1pt E/W – Mull of Killough @ 20/1

Race 5 – Queen Mary 

Another tricky race with no show of prices at the time of writing but Mironica won nicely on debut justifying market support and with some eyecatching entries she makes most appeal of a difficult race to work out.

1pt win Mironica @ SP

Race 6 - Sandringham

In the last, again there are no price shows however the one I like is Kinetica.  Unraced this term having ran well in the autumn  last year particularly in France.  Luke Morris will win a race this week I am sure and lets hope it is aboard Sir Mark Prescott’s Kinetica who looks set to run in group company again this year and this listed race could be a real springboard for her.

1 pt Win Kinetica @ SP

SL

It is that time of year again, my favourite week in the racing calendar, Royal Ascot.  There are many great racing festivals and undoubtedly Cheltenham provides the National Hunt lovers with its premier event.  On the Flat however Ascot takes centre stage and having grown up in Ascot and the Royal meeting a regular in my personal calender it is obviously my favourite…and I gather the Queen’s too.

Last year we had a very successful meeting on this site tipping up close to double figures in terms of winning bets and plucking out some nice double figure winners including Prohibit in the Kings stand and Deacon Blues in the Wokingham – two of the more tricky races.  Today’s installment focuses primarily on day 1 (Tuesday) and due to England commitments on Tuesday night I may well have to put Wedesdays piece up soon too.

M rationale at Ascot this year is to look at several things; 1) Trainers in form  2) Forms of the horses isn’t everything 3) the going and its softer than usual nature.

1)  Trainers like John Gosden have a very strong stable this year and with his excellent stable jockey William Buick firing in the winners I think they could probably win with the stable cat at the moment.  Their combination strike rate is 45% that is impressive.  Take note. Richard Hannon’s horses are also hot at the moment too and I’m really keen to be on side with 2 jockeys in particular.  Ryan Moore is a superstar and I think he has some decent mounts and Luke Morris a very impressive young claimer could produce the biggest win of his career if he gets a decent ride taking weight off in the big runner handicaps.  Regaular followers know how enamored I am with Roger Varian and in particular horses owned my Hamdan al Maktoum.   Varian’s horses always go well at Ascot and he has some very interesting runners this week

2) Lots of horses are trained with Ascot in mind and subsequently may not have won last time out…especially in the big runner races.  Horses with winning form are often the shortest odds but there is plenty of value to be had with horses looking to be brought to the boil by canny trainers on the big day.

3) Normally Royal AScot is a hot week and the ground is Good or Good to Firm.  Currently it is Good, Good to Soft in places.  There is a little more rain forecast but Ascot’s new straight has excellent drainage and I expect that to be Good ground come Tuesday.  Having said that the ground will have a bit of cut in it and I suspect a few french raiders – who appreciate the surface will go well this week.

Race 1 – Queen Anne

The Awesome Frankel is back and unbackable for me at 1-6  and I’m sure he will win however there could be value elsewhere.  Excellebration is certainly value at 6-1 E/W as he nearly always chases Frankel home and so that looks like a decent bet.  I also like Helmet.  An Aussie import who has raced in France and at 33-1 e/w also appeals

Advice

1pt E/W – Helmet @ 33/1

3pts E/W – Excellebration @ 6/1

.5pts Tricast – Frankel / Excellebration / Helmet

Race 2 – Kings Stand

A real tough nut this year.  I was pretty impressed with Bated Breath in the Duke of York and the way he and Sole Power moved well clear was a good marker for this.  However that was on very quick ground and I’m not they both will be terribly suited by this ground.  Someone who will is the French Sprinter Wizz Kid and he looks my idea of the winner.  I also like Tangerine Trees who is a real pacesetter who has won big races in France.  If he gets a good start and the ground is soft he will be tough to peg back.  His trainer was adamant this has been his main target I will stick with those two.

1pt E/W Wizz Kid @ 6/1

1pt E/W Tangerine Trees @ 25/1

Race 3 – St James Palace

I’m happy to take Power on in this race.  His Irish Guineas win doesn’t fill me with confidence.  Sure it was impressive but the race was muddled and at the prices he’s well worth taking on.  Primarily with Lucayan who I can’t believe is still 10/1 following his French Guineas victory.  Originally I was keen on Dragon Pulse however when you consider he was comfortably beaten that day by Lucayan and they are the same price I am keen to stick with the horse with a group 1 win in the book.  A little saver is needed on Fencing – mainly because of the Gosden/Buick factor.  Fencing has ran creditably this year in the English Guineas and then the Dante.  He didnt get home at York and a drop back to a mile should really suit this horse who is held in high esteem by many who know what they are talking about.

Advice -

1pt E/W Lucayan @ 10/1

1pt E/W Fencing @ 12/1

Race 4 -Coventry Stakes

This race for 2 year olds often follows a similar theme.  There is normally a real superstar in the field.  Power, Strong Suit, Canford Cliffs and Henrythenavigator have all won this in the last 5 years.  However it isn’t always the winner who is the real top drawer horse as 2 yr olds often take time to develop. Holy Roman Emperor illustrated that when 15th in this race before winning group 1′s in France and Ireland and running superstar Teofilo to a head.  Despite Power’s victory last year it is clear Richard Hannon is the king of turning out great 2 year olds and in Sir Prancealot it looks like he has another cracker.  Very impressive when destroying the field at Sandown a few weeks ago and at 6-1 he’s where my moneys going.

3pts win Sir Prancealot @ 6/1

Race 5 -Ascot Stakes

Last year I tipped up Veiled to win this and he duly obliged.  This year he is twice the price! This is a difficult market to really make a justified case but given that Course and Distance form is crucial and horses that win races regualrly come back the next year and defend their crown I like Veiled at 10/1 to give us a good run.

1 pt E/W Veiled @ 10/1

Race 6 – Windsor Castle 

I must confess to not having really got a strong opinion in this race.  Hannon is mob handed with runners and O’Brien has brought one over from his army of good horses at ballydoyle.  However the one horse I have seen run this year is Dylanbaru.  He has run 4 times and although he’s only won his maiden but his last race was very impressive and Tommy Stack is a shrewd operator. I’m not sure what price he will start at but for a small stakes bit of interest in the lucky last lets hope he can illustrtate he is still on an upward curve.

1pt E/W Dylanbaru @ SP

SL