Time to ‘Mull’ over the new Flat season before the “Battle of Chiswick” on Sunday
The 2012 turf flat season is finally here and it is an exciting time for racing fans. With the Grand National still on the horizon and the prep races for the early season classics around the corner we have an exciting overlap of jumping and flat racing to look forward to.
The traditional curtain raiser, the Lincoln, run at Doncaster is always a tricky conundrum with the draw as well as a lack of form making punting particularly tricky. Eton Forever who won the spring mile at this meeting last year is a worthy favourite for this blogs favourite flat trainer Roger Varian. Varian produced several winners for us last season however 6-1 seems a low in such a competitive race and despite shorter priced horses having a good record in the recent years 6 of the last 9 winners have been 10-1 or less I think there is more value to be found. Usually the money speaks wonders early season and Penitent the 2010 winner is a classic illustration opening at double figures and cruising home to score by 2 lengths at 3/1 fav. The horse which finished 3rd that year Mull of Killough is however my idea of a likely winner. Back in he winners enclosure already this year over a mile on the all weather and with course and distance form and VC bet still offering 16-1 I think that is a decent bet. There has been a fair bit of money around for this horse and I suspect it may shorten up again in the morning. It is also worth keeping an eye on the market becuase it often speaks volumes in these early season races.
In Dubai there is the huge world cup meeting. I like the look of Zazou to cause an upset in the $10 million Dubai world cup. Beating Cirrus des Aigles last time out is a really decent bit of form and an excellent prep race over 10f on the all weather at Chantilly. World cup night is always a tricky one but I will put up City Style as a live each way chance in the Dubai Duty Free and Treasure Beach to spring a surprise in the Sheema Classic.
The Tour of Flanders is the big Cycling race of the weekend and the course looks as tough as old boots. This can only be good for Fabien Canellara who is the toughest of them all. Last year he was almost odds on for this race and now he is 3/1. That illustrates how tactical the classics are these days and whilst I don’t think Fab is a shooin I defo think he is a bit of value at 3/1. There is value galore further down the field. Edvald Boasen Hagen (33/1) and Jose Antonia Flecha (150/1) are leading the charge for Sky and I think both will finish top 10 so they have live each way chances. I like the look of Leukemans at 66/1, he has a great track record in this race and with stalwart Stijn Devolder as his race leader he should be there or there abouts at the finish. I also think Niki Terpstra has a good chance at 40/1 although being in the same team as favourite Tom Boonen does dampen his hopes somewhat. Whatever happens it looks set to be a cracker.
The biggest sporting occasion of the weekend happens on Sunday at the Kings House Sports Ground in Chiswick. Project Clapham look to strengthen in the trophy cabinet department as they look to add another title to their already well bolstered roll of honour. A cup final not to be missed could be topped off if skipper David Gerty leads by example and notches first at a juicy 14/1 – you heard it here first!
3.15 Doncaster 1pt E/W Mull of Killough – 16/1 VC bet
5.25 Meydan 1pt E/W City Style – 33/1 Paddy Power
6.00 Meydan 1 pt Win Treasure Beach – 9/1 Stan James
6.40 – Meydan 1 pt Win Zazzou – 12/1 – Paddy Power
Cycling – Tour of Flanders
3pts win – Fabian Canellara – 3/1 General
1 pt e/w – Edvald Boasen Hagen – 33/1 General
.5pt e/w Leukamans – 66/1 General
.5pt e/w Flecha – 150/1 General
Football – Sunday Cup Final
David Gerty to score first – 14/1 Robbo