With Sports Leviathan horse racing wing out of the country in sunnier climes this preview of Cheltenham has to come a little earlier than I would like (NB article written on Monday 5th March).  Having made my own personal ante post bets and finding out some are losers before a horse has even run is very frustrating, however with most firms offering NR no bet concessions it seems an ideal time to dip our toe into Prestbury Parks’ prestigious waters.

Trainers:

Personally I think it is going to be a great festival for Willie Mullins the Irish Champ.  His success is unrivalled at Galway’s festival meeting and it appears he is getting more of a stranglehold on the Cheltenham equivalent.  The biggest problem is sifting through his minefield of runners particularly when we don’t know which race they are heading for.  The second biggest problem is that his class is obviously no secret and subsequently prices are accordingly low.  Hurricane Fly looks in imperious form but with 4/6 about him means he is difficult to back even if he is a banker.  My advice with Mullins is don’t be put off by second or third choices (based on jockey bookings)  particularly in big runner handicap hurdles or bumpers.

Shrewd female trainers is where a lot of my money heads and none are shrewder than Emma Lavelle, Lucinda Russell and Venetia Williams.  With relatively small strings (in Lavelle’s case particulalrly) they seem to really find the right horses for the right races and I would urge their runners to be given a second look.  Prices are often very kind and there are a few of Lavelle’s horses I think may go well this year.  Nigel Twiston Davies has an excellent record over the past 5 years at the course and his +£43 level stakes profit is also worthy of note.

Jockeys:

Aside from the obvious; Walsh. McCoy, Gerraghty et al who will no doubt contest many fierce finishers, keep your eyes out for Aiden Coleman.  I have mentioned him on this site a few times and he continues to pop up at big prices in Saturday’s big handicap races.  He rides for Venetia Williams who is also often represented by Sam Thomas.  I think Coleman has a good Cheltenham win in his locker this year so keep your eyes peeled for his mounts.  The same is true for Thomas and if he and Williams team up it can be a deadly combination, particulalrly in some of the less fashionable races.  Paddy Brennan is also profitable to follow; in the past 5 years at Cheltenham over 269 rides he has a remarkable level stakes profit of +£65.19.  Take note!

Owners :

The Stewart family and their synonymous black and white colours have dominated winners enclosures (well certainly the World Hurdle one) for many years as have David Johnson’s green and blue silks.  There is value at backing David Jonhsons’ horse who are often tough as old boots and seem to be more reasonably priced since Pipe junior took over the reigns. Over the past 5 years Johnson’s horses have a 13% win rate at Cheltenham with a levels stakes profit of +£23. There are a few of these horses I like this year.  In the last year it is Mrs Diana Whateley’s navy and light blue colours, carried by Captain Chris, Menorah and Wishful Thinking that have had nearly a 30% win rate at the Gloucestershire track.  There could be a diamond in the rough hiding in her star studded string.

Horses:

For all the talk of trainers, jockeys and owners want all punters want to see is their horse cruising over the last still on the bridle and the jockey after the race describing their trip as a “push button ride” .  Sadly it doesn’t always happen that way and the famous hill at Cheltenham is crucial in provide thrilling finishes.  Using the logic presented earlier here are a few horses to keep your eye on – whichever race they run in!!

1) Sir Des Champs – This Willie Mullins horse looks mightily impressive.  Unbeaten since arriving from France.  Has won the last 6 on the bounce and is highly regarded by the yard.  Probably will run in the Jewsons against Peddlers Cross but could also head for the RSA which indicates his ability.

2) Snap Tie –  Been off the track for years but this wily old performer has been subject to a lot of interest and if he reproduces some of his old sparkle he will be right there again.  Third in the supreme here in 2008 and could be a class act when he shows up

3) Fox Appeal – A big price but one of the types Emma Lavelle does so well with.  Won nicely at Taunton last time out and crucially seems to like winning,  This will be a step up but each way value around 25-1 looks great.

4) Steps to Freedom – Good bumper form coupled with a sensible and successful season so far.  I think this horse has a great chance to be 2012 Supreme Novice.

5) Medermit – Gutsy and tough I fully expect Medermit to be there at the finish in the RyanAir.  Whether Riverside Theatre is the same horse away from Ascot where he beat Medermit will be interesting but I would be happy to be backing this warrior in a duel.

6) Faasel – I have a real soft spot for this horse.  Loves the festival, will like the quicker ground and will be great to see those bright red silks storming home late.

7) Houblon Des Obeux –  Course and distance winner for Venetia Williams and likely to have AC on board.

8) Urbain De Sivola – Smallish yard and relatively unfashionable trainer…very talented horse.  This adds up to a bit of value and a real chance at a big prize in the Triumph Hurdle.

Of the big races I can’t see past many of the favourites.  Sprinter Scare looks likes a superstar and the way Peddlers Cross has bodyswerved the race illustrates how good other trainers think he is.  The other 4 already are superstars and I can’t see Sizing Europe, Hurricane Fly, Big Bucks or Kauto Star losing given the strength of their recent form coupled with their course and distance wins last year.  There normally is someone lurking in the wings to lower their colours but I can’t see them!

Arkle – Sprinter Sacre

Champion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly

Queen Mother Champion Chase – Sizing Europe

World Hurdle – 1) Big Bucks  2) Oscar Whiskey  3) Mourad

Gold Cup – Kauto Star

SL