Listening to the radio the other day I took objection to the comments of the expert “analyst” or so they are called…basically the guy who is in to support the commentator by chipping in every 5 minutes or so.  This is how the dialogue went;

“What do you think about Tottenham this season?  Have they got enough to maintain a title challenge or do they need to strengthen in the window” asked the commentator

“I think Tottenham have a good team and could challenge for the top 2 positions in the league.  If they could just add 2 or 3 players in the transfer window they would go close” stated the analyst competently.

“Interesting, where do you think they need to strengthen?  What sort of player do they need? ” Replied the commentator amiably.

Gareth Bale is leading Tottenham's assault on the Premier League

Cue completely flustered man desperately trying to bullshit his way out of the corner he put himself in.  ”Well um, um they definitely need a striker, probably a midfielder and another defender” He didn’t know because his response was a token and standard response to the question posed, “do you think Tottenham need to strengthen in January?”  I mean honestly this is an “expert” talking and what he serves up is another example of the parasitic cliche;  The parasitic cliche lives inside a lot of pundits and feeds of the non specific, repetitive and mundane feedback we hear on a weekly basis… and just when you think they can’t get lack any more incision and acuity out comes the cliche, evident in this case by the old “they need to strengthen in the window” line.  the analyst said they needed to strengthen because he felt it was the right thing to say, he didn’t really believe it or for that matter seem to really know whether they did or they didn’t.

It is true Tottenham have had an excellent season; they are exciting to watch, play with purpose, drive and pace that gets all football fans out of their seats.  ”I’d pay to watch Tottenham play” quoted David Moyes in the build up to their premier league game this week.  However their success has stemmed in my opinion from several things.  Firstly they have a good blend of youth and experience with an average age of their starting squad being 27 – One of the higher in the league, the players could be considered to be in their prime.  Certainly this seems true of Bale, Modric, Parker and several of the back 4.  They have used only 20 players (from starting) this season – the fewest in the premier league, indicating they have, by and large, kept key squad members fit and have been able to play something like their strongest team on a regular basis.  Couple an exciting and talented squad with limited injuries (I know all teams get injuries but star players like Bale have been largely injury free) and a manager willing to ‘have-a-go’ then you have a chance to be consistent and that is what Tottenham have done this season and what is pushing them up the pecking order – consistency.

Consistency comes from playing a similar team each week, the ability to remain constant and therefore replicate successful techniques and responses in new situations and different scenarios.  The players in turn gain confidence and motivation from this success, want and are able to to replicate it more frequently and therefore carry their confidence into their next performance.  My point is that the last thing you need is a £25 million player turning up on your doorstep with a forehead tattoo saying “the gaffa has to play his new signing”.  Similarly the thought of adding 2 or 3 players to an already tight unit half way through the season runs the risk of doing more harm than good; unsettling players, hampering the confidence of players and deflating a group, high on their own success thus far.  It is my contention that the window is far more profitable for teams who need an impact or a boost, a team for example who might be hovering around relegation, as opposed to a top four side who are looking to strengthen for maybe the title run in or a push for Europe.

Needless to say if the switch is made a reality, the player in question can often feel an even weightier expectation, especially if a large price tag carries them aloft into their new club amidst cries of him becoming the new club’s newest legend or indeed saviour.  You only have to look at the biggest exponent of the January flop; Fernando Torres.  The weight of the price tag seems to have pushed his already out of sorts form into further disarray.  I saw him play for Liverpool in the flesh and he was awesome, an admirable specimen who was stockier and more powerful than I expected and had the movement to disorientate the best defenders in the world, ask Nemanja Vidic.  However his arrival at Chelsea for whatever reason has not worked.  But he isn’t alone, strikers with big price tags are a big no no in the January ‘sales’.

A book I can highly recommend – Moneyball, is a fantastically astute look into the statistics associated with baseball and their implementation during the draft selection process that exists in US sport.  There are several players that, statistically, you should never invest your money in e.g. High School Pitchers who’s record, statistically is far worse than College pitchers.  However the word of mouth and subjective approach from scouts ensured that High School pitchers are often more fashionable for the ‘potential’ they possess.  Billy Beane (head coach of the Oakland A’s) would argue that he would prefer someone with proven form at a higher level (i.e. a college pitcher).  He would cheer every time a high school pitcher was drafted leaving his 1st choice draft picks (usually college players) left to be swept up by him and his statistical outlook.  In January, strikers are often bought for overinflated prices and brought in as ‘the answer’.  However I suspect there is someone out there cheering as loud as Billy Beane every time Roman Abramovich opens his Torres directed , new year chequebook.

I’m sure that same person could be heard laughing when;

-  Middlesborough signed Alfonso Alves for nearly £13 million in 2008.  His 10 goals in 48 appearances ensured Middlesborough were rightly relegated for their rashness and condemned Alves to a life of huge wages and cuban cigars in Qatari football.  At least someone benefitted!?

- Jose Antonio Reyes singed for £10 million by Arsenal.  Reyes was brought up in a caravan, dribbling around garden gnomes to learn his trade.  When he got his big move to England’s capital he was more concerned about a severe lack of understanding of English than producing on the pitch.  He found the words “score” and “goals” particularly difficult to comprehend.

-  Andy Carroll took the total of overpriced strikers moving last January to £85 million pounds.  In fairness it is probable a lot of pressure to think that despite your poor attitude off the field, anti social behaviour orders, burnt out cars and social and domestic issues you are valued at the same price as clean water for an African shanty town for the rest of their life.  To be fair he does remind me of a camel, maybe he would be of use in Africa after all.  £35 million is an investment Liverpool are still waiting on a return for.

- Georgios Samaras broke all of Manchester City supporters hearts by signing for them for £6 million in 2006.  His 8 goals in 53 matches screams SPL and thats where he ended up.

-  Real Madrid goal machine Fernando Morientes pitched up at Anfield in 2005 to deposit 8 goals in 41 games at a return of just under £1 million per goal.

-  Supersub and everyones favourite “did he really play for England” Michael Rickets and his £3.5 million move to Middlesborough.  Predictably 3 goals in 32 games saw him narrowly miss out on Euro 2004.

- Gianfranco Zola stumped up £9 million on Savio Nsreko.  Cue some very unhappy hammers as brescia’s loss was West Ham’s well loss as well.  10 games 0 goals and swift return flight to Florence to ply his trade in Seria B.

In fairness it isn’t just strikers, disasters such as Jean Alain Boumsong further epitomise the panic buying nature of January.  £8 million for a defender proven…in the SPL.  Who would have thought Graeme Souness, now an expert analyst on Sky Sports, would have the tactical nous and guile to pair him up with Titus Bramble…I can hear Billy Beane now, laughing his socks off.

Christophe Dugarry seems perplexed at the Premier League's panic buys

Ultimately it is clearly a time of caution but there have been some real success stories of the January transfer window since its introduction;

- Henrik Larson’s move to Man Utd was just the ignition Fergie needed in his squad and the Swede helped United achieve another premier league title.

- Christophe Duggarry gave Birmingham City a huge lift in 2003 and his 5 goals were memorable in keeping them in the premier league.

- Mikael Arteta, Ashley Young and Javier Masherano are other examples of players signed to have a big impact on clubs that aren’t quite at their peak.  You only have to look at the signing of Daniel Sturridge for Bolton last season, his goals were season defining and how they have missed him this year.  Sturridge along with Larson and Dugarry are illustrations of how January can be of use.  An inspiration not a flagship.  Mascherano, Arteta and Young portray a more circumspect approach of signing talented young players with huge potential for relatively little money compared to Torres and Carroll and allowing them time to blood in without the media hype of the ‘the £30 million saviour’ arriving.  It is in my opinion these type of players that is what the January window is used for, however every year some managers never learn.

Last January there was £225 million spent in the window on ‘squad strengthening’!!  And in my opinion for every Dugarry there seems to be a plethora of Torres’.   I will always allow myself a rye chuckle when the cash is splashed in large sums by clubs in January, even if football’s expert analyst and his parasitic cliche feels they definitely needed to ‘strengthen their squad in the window‘.