Are Chelsea the worse CL finalists ever? And why do CL winners go downhill after their success?
I love the Champions league. It is compulsive viewing, involves the best players in the world and produces some marvellous sporting theatre and some interesting attack versus defence training sessions too. However call me a nostalgic stig in the dump but seasons like this one with Chelsea in the final, I find it hard to stand tall and say we are watching Europe’s finest, even if they are there by merit, which they are. In 2005 Liverpool’s champions league winning side contained Steve Finnan,Djimi Traore, Vladimir Smicer and Milan Baros. Many people (mainly English) football fans argue that this is one of the worst teams/squads to win the champions league. A starting XI of:
Dudek, Finnan, Carragher, Hypia, Traore, Alonso, Garcia, Gerrard, Kewell, Baros and Riise doesn’t scream ‘best team in Europe’ but when you look at the strength in depth; a bench of Carson, Josemi, Hamann, Nunez, Biscan(!!) Cisse and Smicer it begs the question how on earth did they prevail at all in a competition so tough for such a long period.
It has been put to me that this years Chelsea line up could rival Liverpool’s 2005 effort with the likes of Bosingwa, Romeu, Kalou, Mikel and Malouda and whilst I agree this is not a strong Chelsea line up and these players are substandard it is slightly over-crictical on players who only a few seasons ago were winning the double for Chelsea under Ancelotti. Biscan and Traore never came close to this level before their CL victory.
Clearly the campaign in 2005 took its toll on Liverpool who finished the season in 5th on 58 points (the same as Bolton Wanderers) a whopping 37 points (enough to survive relegation) behind the league champions Chelsea. So my question is, with Chelsea struggling this season, finishing in 6th; does the Champions League have a detrimental effect on league form? Furthermore I am keen to examine how the standard of the CL has fluctuated and conclude what impact success (in this case judged by making the final) in the CL has on future club league campaigns.
Summary of Results:
1) Since 1993 there have been 19 finals (38 teams).
2) 23/38 the number of finalists who win their league the year before reaching the final.
3) 20/38 the number of finalists who win their league the same year as reaching the final.
4) 13/38 the number of finalists who win their league the year after reaching the final.
5) 8 – the number of finalists who don’t even finish in the top 3 the next year.
The first point to pick up on is the contention that teams success in the CL is a hindrance to their league form. The statistics show a more logical contrary that good league form generally has a positive effect on CL progress. This makes sense, as it is clear that by and large the strongest team in a particular league that season are more likely to progress in the CL. It is also pertinent to note that although the number is over half it could be argued that just over 50% of CL finalists winning their domestic league is a relatively low figure given their superiority in Europe’s premier club competition.
The standard itself clearly fluctuates every year with peaks of goliath clashes between all conquering sides like Barca and Man United in 2009 or Ajax and AC Milan in 1995 to a final in 2007 where neither runners up Liverpool nor AC Milan finished higher than 3rd in the season before, during or after the CL final – How can this be a champions league when 2 underachieving domestic sides battle out Europes flagship club tournament?
23 of the 48 finalists won their league prior to reaching the final illustrating that the most important ingredient to being a finalist is league success. This figure is slightly distorted by the fact that only league champions were initially allowed in the competition but since 2000 (when top European leagues were allowed 4 competitiors) there have been 12 finals and 8 have been won by champions of their league the year before so it is a strong trend.
The most interesting statistic however and probably the most relevant argument of this article is that success in the CL seriously hampers your progress the following domestic season. Whether it is burnout or over inflated expectations teams just simply can’t back up their CL success with league form. Possibly putting credence to the argument that it should be called a Champions Cup not League as clearly the facets of a winning team aren’t consistency or ‘winning when your not playing well’ but being able to take an opponent down over two legs through whatever methods, tactics or bus parking you require. Only 13 clubs followed up a CL final appearance with league success the following year. This very low considering the calibre of teams we are talking about coupled with the stat that 23 finalists are present in the final off the back of winning a league yet don’t seem to be able once they reach the pinnacle of European club football keep the run going. Huge teams such as this years Barca and Man United teams who played in the final last year have finished 2nd in their respective leagues further franking the trend. Ajax 96 , Porto 04 Barca 06 Inter 11 are all examples of all conquering domestic sides who failed to follow up several years of domestic dominance once they won the CL final. Could it be that these successful teams take their foot off the gas once they have ‘achieved it all’? I’m not so sure about that but their must be something deep set has caused this consistent spate of underachievement after major achievement. I suppose the phrase ‘after the lord mayors show’ was invented for examples like this and it seems unequivocal that there is a correlation between CL success and subsequent below par domestic league form.
Whilst I accept that there are a large number of variables involved in CL and league success; injuries, suspensions, transfer windows, cup runs, managerial changes (in Chelsea’s case they seem to succeed once they have one…Hiddink, Grant, Di Matteo) it doesn’t dilute the fact that despite having the ability to attract big names, gain more money through sponsorship and TV rights the bottom line is it doesn’t bring consistency and despite good cup teams like Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Valencia, Bayer Leverkusen and arguably AC Milan being successful none have been able to build a lasting dynasty of success akin to that of Man United, Barcelona or Bayern Munich and that is precisely the reason why I loved the old format. Yes it was exclusive, possibly over elitist and not always the best spectacle, as the champions of Finland provided a test in line with a championship side when we could be watching Real Madrid, Spain’s second best team in action. To me however it was just what it said on the tin…
…The Champions League; Smicer, Traore and Biscan need not apply.
SL
Appendix
The first value represents the league finishing position the season before reaching the final. The second indicates their league position the season they reached the final and the third number shows their finishing position the season after the CL final. A dash or hyphen indicates the team finished outside the top 3 that season.
Winners Runner-up
2011 Barca 1st 1st 2nd MU 1st 1st 2nd
2010 Inter 1st 1st 2nd BM 2nd 1st 3rd
2009 Barca 1st 1st 1st MU 1st 1st 2nd
2008 MU 1st 1st 1st CH 2nd 2nd 3rd
2007 AC 3rd – - LIV 3rd 3rd -
2006 Barca 1st 1st 2nd ARS 2nd – -
2005 LIV - - 3rd AC 1st 2nd 3rd
2004 PORT 1st 1st 2nd Monaco 2nd 3rd 3rd
2003 JUVE 1st 1st 3rd AC - 3rd 1st
2002 RM 1st 3rd 1st BL – 2nd –
2001 VAL 3rd – 1st BM 1st 1st 3rd
2000 RM 2nd - 1st VAL – 4th 3rd
1999 MU 2nd 1st 1st BM 2nd 1st 1st
1998 RM 1st – 2nd JUVE 1st 1st –
1997 BD 1st 3rd – JUVE 2nd 1st 1st
1996 AJAX 1st 1st - JUVE 1st 2nd 1st
1995 AJAX 1st 1st 1st AC 1st – 1st
1994 AC 1st 1st - BARCA 1st 1st -
1993 Mars 1st – 2nd AC 1st 1st 1st
Grand National Preview: Can our horse ‘Cappa Bleu’ weekend in Liverpool?
Britains biggest horse race takes centre stage - can we find the winner?
The BBC in their last year of Grand National coverage has opted for the Melbourne Cup “ The race that stops a nation” approach to their coverage and to some extent this is true. It has become engrained into the psyche of our nations society that its fine to have a bet on Grand National day and many allow their only gamble for the whole year on the Aintree spectacular so lets hope we can pick out the winner.
The John Smiths Grand National is probably Britain’s premier horse race from many perspectives; A marathon distance of 4 miles plus, higher and more difficult obstacles than other courses, tradition, heritage, 40 runners and an 80,000 crowd all contribute to a fantastic spectacle which encapsulates even the least likely of people, persuading them to part with a little £1 each way or at least pull a name out in a sweepstake.
In some ways however it isn’t a premier horse race. It is only a grade 3 race and is just a handicap. This in essence ensures that the best horse doesn’t’necessarily win due to the weight differences the horses have to carry. Horse number 1 carries the most weight as in all handicaps and number 40 the least. Therefore technically the number 1 horse is the best horse in the race with the quality of the horses descending until you reach number 40 the weakest horse (based on ratings). However for many reasons this isn’t always the case. Without going into too much detail the real skill is to try and pick a horse out who is carrying a light enough weight to be capable of winning but also one who is actually good enough to win.
This year the quality of the field could not be stronger. For the first time in a long time the winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup (Britain’s elite steeplechase) lines up at Aintree. It also consists of 2 previous winners, a Welsh national first and second and a Gold cup third so in many ways this is the strongest renewal of the Grand National in terms of quality and ratings. This may put to the sword the stat followers (as I will outline below) as it seems it is becoming increasing easier to finish the course and in the examples of Don’t Push it and Hedgehunter win off heavier weights. The bottom line is as the entrants for this handicap race are becoming classier; it makes it increasingly difficult for the handicapper to get it right.
The stats:
Age – Ten of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 and no horse since 1940 has won aged 7 or for 87 years there hasn’t been a winner older than 12. The optimum age is 9 or 10 with 0 of the first 10 home last year younger than 9. If we stick with this lets rule out any horse not between 8-12
Gone are..
40 – Black Appalachi
39 – Organised Confusion
38 – Tharawaat
37 – Viking Blond
If we also eliminate all the 8 year olds (this could be risky but we are trying to narrow it down from 40)
36- Alfa Beat (NB I will make his case later as a possible exception)
35 – Tatenen
34 – Shakalakaboomboom
33 – On his own
32 – Quiscover Fontaine
Weight – Obviously in such a long race the weight allowance on the horses back will eventually take its toll. Since the war only 5 Grand Nationals have ben won by horses carrying more than 11st 5lbs. Red rum was the last horse to do so back in 1977. Don’t push it did manage to win off 11st 5lb though two years ago and Hedgehunter (11st 1lb) and Ballabriggs (11st) have also won off 11stone plus but it is a tough ask. This is more difficult to assess this year with Synchronised showing up but at his odds I am prepared to say we are looking for a horse with a weight lower than 11stone.
Therefore we lose..
31 – Synchronised
30 – Ballabriggs
29 – Weird Al
28 – Neptune Collonges
27 – Calgary Bay
26 – Planet of Sound
25 – Deep Purple
24 – Junior
With this years races being the classiest in history with the lowest horse rated 137 and the highest 161 more horses than ever are in with a shout.
Stamina – Obviously in such a long race it pays to side with a horse that has won a race over 3 miles and therefore can potentially last the marathon test the Grand National delivers
Also out are..
23 – Vic Venturi
22 – In Compliance
I am also going to discount those who won poor races based on the amount of prize money. A bit of class is needed to win this race.
21 – Always Waining (has won valuable races but not at 3m plus)
20 – Swing Bill
19 – Postmaster
18 – Midnight Haze
There are lots of horses that have won a 3m chase and with the ground likely to be soft I am looking to further whittle the field down by looking for soft ground winners or those who have won at 3 and a half miles or further. I am also going to eliminate those who haven’t won in the last year.
17 – Seabass (never run further than 3 miles)
16 – Rare Bob (won once in last 2 years and not since last Jan)
15 – Treacle (won a very weak race in October and no real staying form)
14 – Becauseicouldntsee (hasn’t won for 2 years)
13 – State of Play (hasn’t won for four years and only runs in this race these days)
12 – Chicago Grey (Hasn’t won on soft ground over 2 and a half miles)
This leaves us with a not so short list of eleven that make relatively strong appeal and the further shortening will be more based on opinion than statistics.
I am really liking the form of the Welsh, Scottish and indeed English Grand National in trying to look for this years winner. Immediately though I am going to rule out
11 – Mon Mome (a past winner of this but not the force of old)
This leaves West End Rocker, According to Pete, Always right, Cappa Bleu, The Midnight Club, Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhill Boy, Le Beau Bai, Killy Glen and Giles Cross. I am going to leave the two JP Macmanus horses alone because McCoy has obviously opted to ride Synchronised. This can sometimes be a mistake, especially as Sunnyhill Boy was impressive at Cheltenham but I suspect he was trained for that rather than this so we will lose him and old boy Arbor Supreme
10 – Arbor Supreme
9 – Sunnyhill Boy
I also don’t think the Midnight club has been trained with the maximum trip in mind and from trainer quotes this seems a bit of a shot at nothing so will let him slip by too.
8) The Midnight Club
The lack of ability I think rules out According to Pete. He wasn’t able to wrap up the Yorkshire Grand National when favourite over 3m 6f and although retaining some ability he doesn’t again look classy enough to trouble the others.
7) According to Pete
The remaining 6 all have lots in Common: Good national form, largely unexposed, good weight, definitely stay and act on soft ground.
6) Le Beau Bai – More exposed but won the Welsh national in a bottomless bog so will definitely stay. Maybe doesn’t have the pace to win this though.
I am willing to let Le Beau Bai fall at the last in our quest for a winner leaving the big 5 below:
5) Giles Cross – Acts in heavy and soft conditions. Has come second in two welsh nationals and won the Grand National trial last time out. Comes to Aintree with a huge chance. Largely unexposed for a 10 year old. Weight 10st 1llb Odds – 12/1
4) West End Rocker – Loves winning. Was brought down last year. Won at this course last time out over these fences in heavy ground. Very live contender. Weight 10 st 12lb Odds 11/1
3) Always Right - Impressive 3rd in last years Scottish National. Very unexposed for a 10 year old. Excellent record and conveniently pulled up in last two starts gives him a nice handicap mark. Weight 10 st 10lb Odds – 28/1
2) Killyglen – Won last time out but most importantly was going really well last year before falling 4 out. This indicates he probably stays and can jump well. Weight 10st 4lb Odds – 16/1
1) Cappa Bleu – Won this season, a good third in a very heavy Welsh National and again unexposed off a good weight. Weight 10st 10lb Odds 14/1
Summation: The above 5 horses are all worthy of each way support and if I had to again narrow it down I would probably have them in that order with 1 being my top pick. I have to admit to backing Cappa Bleu at 50/1 ante post so I will be cheering him on. I also like the prospects of Killyglen and Always Right and have them at 33/1. The odds are slightly different now and at the odds think Always Right still looks a good price. I am also going to have a sneaky each way bet on Alfa Beat at 40/1. Despite his age being against him I think he may be a big player in the Grand National in the future and would be disappointed if I missed out on him this time around (though I think the handicapper has given him a tough task with his weight).
A final word on Synchronised; The Gold cup is sure to have taken a lot out of him but this horse is one tough cookie. He has all the attributes of a national winner. Form in other nationals winning the Midlands and Welsh Nationals. Won over 4 miles in heavy and soft conditions and jumps very well. This season he has turned into a classier animal and won the Gold cup illustrating the speed to win. The big problem is his weight and at the price of 7/1 he is a very worthy favourite who ticks lots of boxes. If he wins he will go down as one of the most remarkable horses in my lifetime – The national and Gold Cup double is an outrageous feat especially given the amount of improvement he has found. I will applaud him in but I would rather back some of the others each way than risk a win bet on a horse with 11st 10lb on his back.
SL
Happy 1 year anniversary: SL looks for a blossoming weekend at Augusta to celebrate in style
A couple of big price place money last week was topped off by Mull of Killough’s barnstorming late effort which saw him defeated in the Lincoln by a nose. Poor Jockey-ship was definitely to blame, but none the less a great start to the flat season. It was one year and 84 article posts ago that Sports Leviathan began and what better place to mark the anniversary than Augusta. There is always something very special about 1 year anniversaries and with Golf’s most beautiful gem at the heart of this weeks article lets hope we can bag a birthday winner.
There is lots of talk about this years Masters being the most exciting ever and it is easy to see why. Of the main protagonists World Number 1 Luke Donald won last time out, World Number 2 Rory Mcillroy won a month ago and his last three tournaments read 2-1-8 in finishing positions. Lee Westwood lies 3rd in the rankings and his recent major record has seen him finish in the top three, five times in the last nine majors. Newly promoted to World number four, Hunter Mahan won last week in Houston, so he is in great shape. World number 5 Steve Stricker has already won this year and world number 6 Martin Kaymer announced his appearance with a lake skimming hole in 1 this week to delight the bamboozled crowd. Just for good measure Tiger Woods fresh from his exceptional victory at Bay Hill is world number 7, returning champ Charl Schwartzel is at 8 and 9 and 10 are filled by ultra consistent Justin Rose who won last month in the WGC Cadillac and Webb Simpson, who although hasn’t won yet this year was a two time winner on the PGA tour last year and this year looks set for an exciting masters debut. Read More…
Time to ‘Mull’ over the new Flat season before the “Battle of Chiswick” on Sunday
Spartans on course for more silverware
The 2012 turf flat season is finally here and it is an exciting time for racing fans. With the Grand National still on the horizon and the prep races for the early season classics around the corner we have an exciting overlap of jumping and flat racing to look forward to.
The traditional curtain raiser, the Lincoln, run at Doncaster is always a tricky conundrum with the draw as well as a lack of form making punting particularly tricky. Eton Forever who won the spring mile at this meeting last year is a worthy favourite for this blogs favourite flat trainer Roger Varian. Varian produced several winners for us last season however 6-1 seems a low in such a competitive race and despite shorter priced horses having a good record in the recent years 6 of the last 9 winners have been 10-1 or less I think there is more value to be found. Usually the money speaks wonders early season and Penitent the 2010 winner is a classic illustration opening at double figures and cruising home to score by 2 lengths at 3/1 fav. The horse which finished 3rd that year Mull of Killough is however my idea of a likely winner. Back in he winners enclosure already this year over a mile on the all weather and with course and distance form and VC bet still offering 16-1 I think that is a decent bet. There has been a fair bit of money around for this horse and I suspect it may shorten up again in the morning. It is also worth keeping an eye on the market becuase it often speaks volumes in these early season races. Read More…
The Festival is nearly here…SL previews the Equine Olympics at Prestbury Park
With Sports Leviathan horse racing wing out of the country in sunnier climes this preview of Cheltenham has to come a little earlier than I would like (NB article written on Monday 5th March). Having made my own personal ante post bets and finding out some are losers before a horse has even run is very frustrating, however with most firms offering NR no bet concessions it seems an ideal time to dip our toe into Prestbury Parks’ prestigious waters.
Trainers:
Personally I think it is going to be a great festival for Willie Mullins the Irish Champ. His success is unrivalled at Galway’s festival meeting and it appears he is getting more of a stranglehold on the Cheltenham equivalent. The biggest problem is sifting through his minefield of runners particularly when we don’t know which race they are heading for. The second biggest problem is that his class is obviously no secret and subsequently prices are accordingly low. Hurricane Fly looks in imperious form but with 4/6 about him means he is difficult to back even if he is a banker. My advice with Mullins is don’t be put off by second or third choices (based on jockey bookings) particularly in big runner handicap hurdles or bumpers.
Shrewd female trainers is where a lot of my money heads and none are shrewder than Emma Lavelle, Lucinda Russell and Venetia Williams. With relatively small strings (in Lavelle’s case particulalrly) they seem to really find the right horses for the right races and I would urge their runners to be given a second look. Prices are often very kind and there are a few of Lavelle’s horses I think may go well this year. Nigel Twiston Davies has an excellent record over the past 5 years at the course and his +£43 level stakes profit is also worthy of note.
Jockeys:
Aside from the obvious; Walsh. McCoy, Gerraghty et al who will no doubt contest many fierce finishers, keep your eyes out for Aiden Coleman. I have mentioned him on this site a few times and he continues to pop up at big prices in Saturday’s big handicap races. He rides for Venetia Williams who is also often represented by Sam Thomas. I think Coleman has a good Cheltenham win in his locker this year so keep your eyes peeled for his mounts. The same is true for Thomas and if he and Williams team up it can be a deadly combination, particulalrly in some of the less fashionable races. Paddy Brennan is also profitable to follow; in the past 5 years at Cheltenham over 269 rides he has a remarkable level stakes profit of +£65.19. Take note!
Owners :
The Stewart family and their synonymous black and white colours have dominated winners enclosures (well certainly the World Hurdle one) for many years as have David Johnson’s green and blue silks. There is value at backing David Jonhsons’ horse who are often tough as old boots and seem to be more reasonably priced since Pipe junior took over the reigns. Over the past 5 years Johnson’s horses have a 13% win rate at Cheltenham with a levels stakes profit of +£23. There are a few of these horses I like this year. In the last year it is Mrs Diana Whateley’s navy and light blue colours, carried by Captain Chris, Menorah and Wishful Thinking that have had nearly a 30% win rate at the Gloucestershire track. There could be a diamond in the rough hiding in her star studded string.
Horses:
For all the talk of trainers, jockeys and owners want all punters want to see is their horse cruising over the last still on the bridle and the jockey after the race describing their trip as a “push button ride” . Sadly it doesn’t always happen that way and the famous hill at Cheltenham is crucial in provide thrilling finishes. Using the logic presented earlier here are a few horses to keep your eye on – whichever race they run in!!
1) Sir Des Champs – This Willie Mullins horse looks mightily impressive. Unbeaten since arriving from France. Has won the last 6 on the bounce and is highly regarded by the yard. Probably will run in the Jewsons against Peddlers Cross but could also head for the RSA which indicates his ability.
2) Snap Tie – Been off the track for years but this wily old performer has been subject to a lot of interest and if he reproduces some of his old sparkle he will be right there again. Third in the supreme here in 2008 and could be a class act when he shows up
3) Fox Appeal – A big price but one of the types Emma Lavelle does so well with. Won nicely at Taunton last time out and crucially seems to like winning, This will be a step up but each way value around 25-1 looks great.
4) Steps to Freedom – Good bumper form coupled with a sensible and successful season so far. I think this horse has a great chance to be 2012 Supreme Novice.
5) Medermit – Gutsy and tough I fully expect Medermit to be there at the finish in the RyanAir. Whether Riverside Theatre is the same horse away from Ascot where he beat Medermit will be interesting but I would be happy to be backing this warrior in a duel.
6) Faasel – I have a real soft spot for this horse. Loves the festival, will like the quicker ground and will be great to see those bright red silks storming home late.
7) Houblon Des Obeux – Course and distance winner for Venetia Williams and likely to have AC on board.
8) Urbain De Sivola – Smallish yard and relatively unfashionable trainer…very talented horse. This adds up to a bit of value and a real chance at a big prize in the Triumph Hurdle.
Of the big races I can’t see past many of the favourites. Sprinter Scare looks likes a superstar and the way Peddlers Cross has bodyswerved the race illustrates how good other trainers think he is. The other 4 already are superstars and I can’t see Sizing Europe, Hurricane Fly, Big Bucks or Kauto Star losing given the strength of their recent form coupled with their course and distance wins last year. There normally is someone lurking in the wings to lower their colours but I can’t see them!
Arkle – Sprinter Sacre
Champion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly
Queen Mother Champion Chase – Sizing Europe
World Hurdle – 1) Big Bucks 2) Oscar Whiskey 3) Mourad
Gold Cup – Kauto Star
SL
Champions League and FA Cup due to be upstaged by some mid-week, lower league footy
Derby v Blackpool
There’s been a big move on Blackpool this afternoon after opening up at 8/5 they are now a bet price of 11/8.
- Both teams have scored in all 9 of Blackpool’s last 9 games (home and away) so the over 2.5 goals in an attractive bet. I prefer this to both teams to score as
- Derby failed to score against Leicester and Reading in their last two run outs at home.
- Blackpool have won their last three away games 3-1
- 11 of last 12 Blackpool away games have had O2.5 goals
3 points over 2.5 goals – 10/11 coral
1 point Blackpool 3-1 – 22/1 ladbrokes
Carlisle v Rochdale
Carlisle have an excellent home record, where as Rochdale are very weak away from home, 8th v 23rd in the table.
- Carlisle haven’t lost at home since 10th September, 12 games unbeaten at home
- Rochdale’s last victory away from Spotland came 9 games ago, a 1-0 win over Preston
- In the last 8 away games, Rochdale have scored one goal, with one 1-1 and three 0-0.
3 points Carlisle -0.25 on Asian Handicap at 1.78 with 188bet
MK Dons v Yeovil
- MK Dons home games average 3.1 goals whilst Yeovil away games average 2.8 goals
- The 8 home and away games for Yeovil have seen both teams score
- Yeovil have scored 8 goals in their last 4 away games
- MK Dons scored 9 goals in their last 4 home games
2 points Both teams to score – 5/6 coral
Swindon v Dag and Red
Swindon have an amazing home record winning their last 8 home games. Swindon’s away record is poor, only one away win in their last 14 away games. Rather than back Swindon at 2/5 there is some value on the correct score market.
- Four of Swindon’s last 8 home wins have finished 2-0
1 point Swindon 2-0 – 11/2 with Coral
CM
After a huge 250-1 football treble last weekend, we delve deep into football betting’s latest adage “if both teams score it’s goals galore!”
After a 250/1 treble on the football last week, I’m taking a look at the both teams to score market this weekend.
The Theory
When making selections on this market I tend to look for four main factors.
- Home team – how many times have both teams scored in the last 6 home games for the home?
- Away team – how many times have both teams score in the last 6 games for the away team?
- Home matches Over 2.5 goals – How many games have featured over 2.5 goals for the last 6 games involving the home team at home?
- Away matches over 2.5 goals – How many games have featured over 2.5 goals for the last 6 games involving the away team on their travels?
The beauty of this system is that simplesoccerstats.com provides all the work for you using their mini console.
In order for a selection to be made, A must equal at least 4 out of 6, B must equal 4 out of 6. Obviously if a team is 5 out of 6, or even 6 out of 6 then this will make a stronger selection. C and D are also important selections and I look for at least 3 out of 6 on both of these, with preferably the pair combining to at least 7.
Example
So taking the early kick off in league one between Oxford and Swindon. A big local derby, let’s take a look at the game through the mini console.
- Both teams have scored 5 times in the last 6 Oxford home games. Oxford have only failed to score at home on one occasion, a 1-0 loss to Crewe.
- Swindon have also been involved in games where both teams have scored 5 of their last 6 away games. They have won ten games on the bounce and scored 2 or more in their last four away games.
- 3 of the 6 Oxford home games have had 3 goals or more with two 1-1 draws.
- 4 of the 6 Swindon away games have had 3 goals or more, including the last 4.
A final factor to consider is other news. Positions in the league, team news and obviously price are important. Generally the best selections are when the away team is a slight favourite.
Di Canio has this to say on the match…. ‘”It’s a special game to play for the players, for the manager but especially for the fans. I don’t want to put more pressure on my players because if they do the job they have been doing we are going to win again. We want to make it a special day for our fans. I think they are very happy at the moment for what we have done until now, but we want more for us. We are going to play our positive, attacking football because we want to win and get the extra satisfaction from this game.”
All this points to a game where both teams are expected to, with the match fulfilling the four criteria for a selection.
I’d summarise the game as follows.
| Match | Home BTS | Away BTS | Home o2.5 | Away o2.5 | Total | Best Price |
| Oxford v Swindon |
5 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
17 |
5/6 |
* bts = both teams to score
So using these criteria, I’ve laid out potential selections for this weekend. Sometimes quite a few games qualify for selection, at other times the selections are minimal.
| Match | Home BTS | Away BTS | Home o2.5 | Away o2.5 | Total | Best Price |
| Oxford v Swindon |
5 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
17 |
5/6 |
| Blackburn v Villa |
5 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
18 |
4/6 |
| Fulham v Wolves |
4 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
17 |
5/6 |
| Barnsley v Forest |
5 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
18 |
4/5 |
| Cardiff v West Ham |
5 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
18 |
4/5 |
| Bury v Huddersfield |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
17 |
8/11 |
| Gateshead v Ebbsfleet |
5 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
19 |
7/10 |
| Southport v Newport |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
19 |
7/10 |
| York v Hayes |
5 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
20 |
10/11 |
| Granada v Valencia |
5 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
19 |
4/5 |
Bets – Both teams to score
1 point on Oxford, Barnsley, Cardiff, Blackburn @ 17/2 with Blue Square
1 point on Blackburn, Fulham, Bury, Granada @ 8/1 with Coral
1 point on York, Bury, Cardiff, Oxford @ 19/2 with bet365
0.1 point Oxford, Blackburn, Fulham Barnsley, Cardiff, Bury, Gateshead, Southport, York, Granada @ 250/1 General.
Good luck!
CM
Cricket trading expert cornerman casts his beady eye over the second T20 in Dubai
England do battle again in Dubai against Pakistan on the same pitch as the 1st t20 game, and possible the same strip. Before we have a look at the odds, let’s take a look at a few pointers from the 1st game.
What did we learn from the 1st game?
- The pitch is slow and scoring shots behind the wicket was difficult
- Batting 1st is an advantage as the pitch slows up through the course of the game
- Zia is the new boom boom, as Nasser would say ‘See ball, hit ball’
- Once you get in, stay in. It’s a hard pitch to come in straight away and score on, especially with the ball reversing near the end of the innings.
- Take advantage of the powerplays, while the ball is still hard and new.
- Bopara and KP look in great touch, Kieswetter and Morgan look out of touch
- Unlikely to be many caught behinds due to the slow nature of the pitch.
Advised bets based on this
- Zia – Race to 10 runs – 23/20 bet365.
Zia bats number 2 which mean Hafeez will face the 1st ball of the game. Zia showed he’s in there to blast over the infield in the 1st 6 and it looks like Hafeez will be aggressive but not super aggressive like the new boom boom. Back him to get off to a flyer again! - KP – Race to 10 runs – 10/11 bet365.
KP will face the first ball and was on 13 last game before Kieswetter had even faced a ball. Kevin is seeing the ball like a beach ball at the moment. I suggest Pakistan open with spin against him rather than Khan or Cheema, but based on the form of the two players, it would be silly to ignore this bet. - Under 150.5 runs Pakistan – 5/6 Ladbrokes
- Under 150.5 runs England – 5/6 Ladbrokes
Both teams struggled to get up to 150 last game and a run rate of 7.50 on this slow pitch with reverse swing will be tough, especially batting second. You get two bites at the cherry with this bet, because if team 1 gets under 151, both selections are winners, but if the 1st bet losses, then the other team might not chase down the 151 anyway. So have a point on each, with it difficult to bat 2nd, will be very unlucky to lose both, with a good chance of scooping
5. Kieswetter under 37.5 performance points – 5/6 bet365
If you’ve never backed performance points, you get 1 point a run, 10 catch, 25 stumping, 20 for a wicket. Kieswetter looked out of sorts in game 1, finding it hard to middle the ball. With the slow nature of the pitch, there were no caught behinds last game, which means it will be hard for to Kieswetter to accumulate 38 points unless he gets a stumping or has a blinder with the bat, both looking unlikely at this stage.
6. 1st 6 tie – 25/1 – William Hill
Amazing stat, but the last three t20 games on this pitch have had tied scores after 6 overs. Back the trend and hope it happens a 4th time!
7. Bopara Man of the Match – 14/1 – bet365
Other than KP, Bopara looked like he could handle the conditions, scoring twos freely and looked at ease with pace on the ball and spin. He’ll also bowl a couple of overs so if England record a victory he could well be the player to hit the winning runs.
Weekend Football
City v Blackburn –
Blackburn have scored in every away game this year, if it wasn’t for this stat, we’d take City to Nil as the banker for the weekend. Trying to find a profitable angle when City are 1/5 isn’t easy. City have won 3 of their last 4 games 3-0 at home, Tottenham 3-2 in between so given the strength of the opposition, this looks a fair price. In the three 3-0s, the HT score was 2-0 everytime, so have a small wager on that as well.
City 3-0 -15/2 – Coral
City 2-0 Half time 9/2 Lads
City score both halves – 8/11 Tote
Norwich v United -
Man Utd have played 12 games away from home this season and have been leading 1-0 at HT on six of those.
United 1-0 Half time 11/4 Coral
Arsenal v Tottenham
This game always has goals. Back both teams to score or for a more adventurous bet, go for over 5.5 goals or the 4-4 correct score as in 2008.
Over 5.5 goals – 6/1 general
Correct Score 4-4 – 250/1 general
White Van Man bringing home a lorry full of loot: SL reflects on all pre season betting advice
With 14 games left it seems a good time to see whether or not our pre season bets are going to come home to roost.
Advice :
5 pts win – Man United to win the Prem @ 13/8 (General) Curently trading - 15/8
This bet looks ok (ish), United will be buoyed by their recent comeback at Stamford Bridge and it appears City aren’t as infallable as they had looked before Christmas. I am still happy that United, with course and distance are more likely to prevail.
1pt Blackburn to be relegated @ 10/3 (coral)
They are now as short as 1/3 with some bookies (best priced 8/15) and despite creating chances they can’t seem to pick up points. Their drubbing at the weekend won’t do their confidence any good and with no other teams emerging as real no hopers (we will come to Wigan in a minute) I am pleased to be on them 6 points better off than their current market position. They could be subject to a bit of laying if you had a pretty big bet. I still think they will probably drop and if their form miraculously revives they will never get bigger than the original 10/3 all season so laying is always a possibility.
3 pts Wigan to be relegated @ 2/1 (coral)
Best priced at 2/9 we are on a real winner with Wigan. They can’t put the ball in the net, are struggling to pick up points and will almost certainly be relegated. 2/1 now looks like a great price.
I was also pleased to avoid the promoted sides. QPR are struggling however are still around 2/1 from odds on at the start and Norwich and Swansea – who both have been very impressive are 28/1!
3 pt win Robin Van Persie to be Top Goalscorer @ 9/1 (betfair)
RVP is now 4/11 to scoop the Golden Boot and the bookies are almost paying out. 21 league goals already and at nearly a double figure price it looks as if our man will win this at a canter. He has been fit all season and has almost single handedly kept Arsenal fighting – Robin I tip my cap to you.
1 pt e/w Jermain Defoe to be Top Goalscorer @ 40/1 (sporting bet & Paddy Power) – Not played enough games. Still in the top 15 but won’t challenge the White Van Man for boots coated in Gold.
Original Article:
With the recent riots about as welcome as Rudi Voeller in a Dutch dressing room , the premiership season gets underway this weekend with some of the worlds greatest players returning to action along with a whole host of average ones.
In previewing a season the hardest thing to gauge is how strong the promoted clubs are. Blackpool last year, dead certs for relegation drubbed Wigan on the opening day. their season was turbulent and they did end up dropping. This illustrates the value of punting early as a topsy turvy season can cause prices to shift quite dramatically. I am going to ignore the promoted clubs as they are all odds on and can back them at that price are seeing how poor they really are (or are not). I think Swansea will struggle but I think the two that might go with them may already be established in the prem. Blackburn are my first pick. Their form in 2011 was worse than all those clubs relegated. This sort of form would send any manager to the slaughter house and I expect Blackburns owners to have wrung Steve Keen’s neck by christmas leaving the Scotsman to run around heedlessly before returning to being a number 2 somewhere. Keen is favourite to be sacked first, yet Blackburn with Coral are 10/3 to be relegated. I think this is a good price – especially as their squad is getting thinner by the day and they may lose Samba (which I suspect they won’t now).
Roberto Martinez is a good, loyal manager who tries to play attacking , attractive football. Sadly at Wigan he has a side that are capable of neither. Rodallega, Cleverly and N’zogbia starred for the Latics last season and with only 1 of that triumvirate left, 2/1 (coral) also looks a good bet for them to slip into the cauldron of Championship next season. The promoted clubs often come up with hunger and desire for the challenge that is slowly ebbed away by tired legs and weary dilapidated squads. Lots of promoted teams have a competitive enough first 11 but usually lack strength in depth and once a few injuries take their toll they struggle. I think a few of the sides coming up may start brighter than teams like Wigan and Blackburn and therefore think it is worth condemning the Lancashire clubs to their Championship doom with their parachute on their back.
The top of the league looks more competitive than ever and with Man City buying the world, Liverpool strengthening and Arsenal signing more Theo Walcott’s, the league looks strong. Add to that mix, 6 strikers Chelsea who spent buckets in January on Shevchenko – MARK 2 and 5 strikers Tottenham, I am looking forward to some epic super Sundays. I normally rant at this point of the year at how Man United look weaker than ever and that I don’t rate their team and they usually go on to win the league. This year is quite the opposite. Their defence looks excellent and with Smalling and Jones as back up there is strength in depth. Their midfield is strong too and Ashley Young is set for a career defining season which I feel will help establish himself as an England regular. If they add Sneijder too their side is frightening and I feel Fergie is competing against Barca now and not the rest of the prem. 13/8 is their best price and I think they are a shoo-in.
The Golden Boot is also something I like to dabble in. In truth it isn’t that easy. Injury often rules out players chances. The top clubs rotate, so would Darren Bent be a good shout as he will probably play every game? Not at 11/1. I must admit to having backed Robin Van Persie at 12/1 a few weeks ago he is about 8/1 now which is a touch short but if (it’s a big if) he stays fit then he will play most games and will rack up the goals. Stuart Downing whipped in more crosses than anyone else last year, a repeat would see Andy Carroll in contention (20/1) however that price is because of his injury prone nature and I will stay clear of him. Of more interest is Jermain Defoe. Proven goalscorer, playing for a top 6 team, he is best priced 45/1 (betfair) or 40/1 (with an e/w market – Paddy Power). At longer prices Peter Odemwingie is 100/1 , if he produces the form of last year he may be up there and he takes penalties. His namesake Peter Crouch may move to Stoke and a regular berth there with some direct football could make his 100/1 look a big price too.
The best of the rest contains as per usual the top four’s cast offs. Steve Bruce has finally achieved his goal of establishing Sunderland as Man United B – cue return of Wellbeck on loan. Stoke aren’t happy with Fuller and Jones’ aerial prowess so are trying to add well needed inches in the box with Crouch or Bendtner to nod in crosses and throws. If they get Crouch they will be a decent side based on their FA cup run last year if, they get Bendter expect their relegation price to shorten – The potters would probably rather have Delilah up top. Villa, Everton and Bolton are likely to scrap hard and achieve nothing and if the latter don’t add to their squad they may be light on goals minus Sturridge.
It is intriguing these riots started shortly after Joey Barton started training on his own, read into that what you will but Newcastle have a season of over expectation and pointless optimism to overcome before they finally sack Pardew and Mike Ashley decides he could do the job better probably with a couple of mates who have won the lot on Championship Manager. Why not go the whole hog and put a pair of football boots on and slip into the number 9 shirt. Make Shearer proud. Talking of Championship Manager, is there any mileage in a new game Football owner? It seems like British football is a honey pot for these new owners – just ask Bryan Robson, he could get you in at a few clubs providing you buy him enough beers in the United club bar.
The total of foreign owners is detailed below and it is an increasing worry that the game slips out of the hardy roots it once thrived in and is as everyone continues to re-iterate a ‘business’ which we must ‘recognise in order to move with the times’ – Disappointing. Business style ownership can lead to financial security but in the most part causes corruption and a distancing from the reality of being a football fan…so basically FIFA!
Premiership – 12 foreign owners (including Lebron James at Liverpool apparently)
Championship -15 foreign owners
The season is set for an interesting beginning, minus Spurs and Everton which is postponed due to the recent riots. But the show must go on and the Premiership is back and booming; despite foreign owners, rising ticket prices, rubbish kick off times, overpaid players who cheat on their gorgeous other halves and the return of Delia “letsbyhavingyou’ Smith its still the premiership and we bloody love it…what a bunch of suckers we all are.
Underrated and Underpaid; Men’s tennis has scarcely been so good, but has the Men’s success exposed their Female counterparts?
A major tournament, in sports where they exist are the pinnacle; In tennis the 4 major tournaments or ‘slams’ as they are affectionately known come in the guises of the hard court events in America and Australia and their respective ‘open’ competitions. Frances own ‘open’ hosted at Roland Garros on Clay and of course Wimbledon in England on the grass. All are loved for something different and respected in their own right. Each will boast that at their tournament the games greatest ever match has taken place, however it would be difficult to argue against the latest instalment to be thrown down by Melbourne as a benchmark for ultimate greatness; Djokovic versus Nadal.
Super Human - Djokovic leading a Everest sized tennis revolution
The mens game has evolved and subsequently thrown up match after match of sheer class, determination, guts and glory. The Nadal / Federer Wimbledon epic that finished in the dark, Murray and Djokovic’s semi this year and then of course the aforementioned nearly 6 hour final. The level of fitness and standard of performance witnessed in tennis over the last 18 months has been phenomenal and Djokovic has taken Nadal’s new era of tennis ball off him and run with it – and pretty quickly at that. It is for this reason I boldly stated that Federer would never win another major in a previous post. I have seen nothing over the past few weeks to change my opinion as it seems clear to me Djokovic, Nadal and Murray have developed the art of returning, scampering, battling and defending from the back of the court and coupled it with powerful, reliable forehands and double handed backhands which have left the swiss super star’s finnesse and class looking back to the 2000′s. It hurts to admit that a reign of supremacy has come to an end but if finnesse is replaced by gladitorial spirit and titanic struggles like the nigh on 6 hour epic just witnessed then I’m not complaining…well actually maybe there is something to complain about.
A lot of people have noted that there was the glaring omission of a women from the Sports Personality of the Year award. Furthermore the idea of equality in sport is a growing notion which is taking time to bed in to some sports – some ill advised comments from Lawrie Sanchez spring to mind about a women official in football. In golf for example there has been talk of women competing alongside men. (despite the fact they aren’t allowed in some club houses!) The key point seems to come down to standard – i.e if they are of a good enough level and in golf that playing field is easily levelled as they all play the same course then why not play alongside each other. Women’s athletics for example is again to quantify success as they are measured by the same times over the same distances as men. In these examples women cannot compete alongside men because they don’t stand a chance of succeeding and therefore have their own category and quite right too. Women’s athletics is just as exciting as mens in all events.
Prize money in sport is huge and its quantity usually illustrates the sports popularity and global brand. Golf is a huge global brand, attracts big sponsors such as HSBC this weekend in Abu Dhabi and therefore can afford to splash out huge pay cheques for its participants. Major tournaments in sport attract big crowds and wealthy sponsors and subsequently can do the same. In the case of the Australian Open tennis the prize money is illustrated below, with first round losers scooping $20,000 just for playing (and losing) 1 game in Heather Watson’s case (not including qualifiers) and $2,3 million (about £1.5 million) for the two respective winners. I think you can probably guess what is coming next…
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| 1st Round | $20,800 | ||
| 2nd Round | $33,300 | ||
| 3rd Round | $54,625 | ||
| 4th Round | $109,250 | ||
| Quarter finalist | $218,500 | ||
| Semi finalist | $437,000 | ||
| Runners-up | $1,150,000 | ||
| Winners | $2,300,000 | ||
I am not wading a vendetta against women’s sport in this article; I would not. I enjoy all sport at all levels from amateur to professional, men, women, children, World Champs, Olympics or Parallel Olympics, to be honest I watch pretty much anything. However it is my contention that a sportsperson who puts in twice as big a shift should be rewarded for their efforts. I disagree with the wage structure currently evident in football but that is a different debate, however in tennis it is stars like Djokovic, Nadal, Federer and Murray who put the bums on seats and earn the tournament their kudos, prestige and financial backing. Sadly I debate whether Azarenka and co. provide such lure. Obviously it is unfair to just compare the finals, surely their are no two finals that are further apart in drama, suspense and quality as the 2012 Austalian Open Men and Women’s singles finals; The men had just finished the first set while in equivalent time the women were shaking hands over their net with Sharapova suitably embarrassed at her no show in the final. Professional tributes from Luke Donald, Rio Ferdinand and Tim Cahill on Twitter eluded to the impressive physical effort of Nadal and Djokovic and the stats below illustrate the phenomenal hardship their bodies go through. Whilst I accept the Women’s game is shorter in its three set format it is never designed to be a whole 50% worse off. the statistics below confirm my assertion that Women’s tennis (previously famed for it’s longer rallies and more interesting points) falls short in nearly every facet. Especially for the humble supporter.
Statistics are of all matches played at the 2012 Australian Open.
| Azarenka | Djokovic | |
| Total Games | 128 | 237 |
| Average Games per match | 18 | 34 |
| Time on Court | 623 (10 hrs 23 mins) | 1,251 (20hrs 51 mins) |
| Average time on court | 89 minutes | 178 mins (2hrs 58mins) |
| Total points played | 831 | 1,508 |
| Average points per match | 119 | 215 |
The stats are even more damning if look in detail at the just their last four games – 4th Round, Quarter final, Semi final and Final
| Azarenka | Djokovic | |
| Total Games | 84 | 173 |
| Average Games per match | 21 | 43 |
| Time on Court | 412 minutes (6hrs 52 m) | 983 mins (16 hrs 23 mins) |
| Average time on court | 103 minutes (1 hr 43m) | 246 minutes (4 hrs 6 mins) |
| Total points played | 544 | 1,129 |
| Average points per match | 136 | 282 |
Djokovic in the final spent longer in one set than Azarenka did in the whole match! It isn’t just the finals but the whole competition though and thats what gets me ranting. Tournament after tournament, round after round we see a war of attrition between finely tuned sportsman at the top of their game. In peak physical shape and able to perform high performance tennis among vast levels of fatigue. On the flipside in the women’s game we hear and see an eclectic mix between grunting and choking. Performers with little mental dexterity and an abundance of frailty. It is obviously unfair to tarnish all with the same brush. Kim Clijsters’ feat to win the US open after having given birth was exceptional but I am quick to question would she have succeded if the women’s game wasn’t in such disarray. Sadly Women’s tennis is devoid of any real stars or role models for youngsters to aspire to, whats the message? Grow big and strong, move to Russia and hope for the best? The Eastern European production line keeps churning out a similar champion who people don’t seem to be able to empathise with. And when a character does come along, someone like Ana Ivanovic or even Sharapova they seem to struggle to take up the mantle and produce consistent performances. It is unheard for people not to recognise the names of the top women tennis players in the world; Clijsters, Serena Williams, Ivanovic, Jankovic all find themselves outside the top 10. And whilst it is nice to see new stars rising and winning grand slams you have to get the impression there are some ‘soft’ grand slam victories being handed out…How Andy Murray wishes that Nadal, Djokovic or Federer would not show up one day and he could get the job done in 3 sets inside 2 hours. Or that on a huge point instead of serving an ace or scampering and returning and defending like their life depended on it they might just choke and hand him an easy break or gift him a match point. It just doesn’t happen, and whilst we are riding on the crest of a wave in this golden era of tennis I think we must be prudent in our assessment; If men’s tennis has the stature and presence of Mount Everest, then Women’s is really just a drop in the ocean.
