With 14 games left it seems a good time to see whether or not our pre season bets are going to come home to roost.

Advice :

5 pts win – Man United to win the Prem @ 13/8 (General)  Curently trading -  15/8

This bet looks ok (ish), United will be buoyed by their recent comeback at Stamford Bridge and it appears City aren’t as infallable as they had looked before Christmas.  I am still happy that United, with course and distance are more likely to prevail. 

1pt Blackburn to be relegated @ 10/3 (coral)

They are now as short as  1/3 with some bookies (best priced 8/15) and despite creating chances they can’t seem to pick up points.  Their drubbing at the weekend won’t do their confidence any good and with no other teams emerging as real no hopers (we will come to Wigan in a minute) I am pleased to be on them 6 points better off than their current market position.  They could be subject to a bit of laying if you had a pretty big bet.  I still think they will probably drop and if their form miraculously revives they will never get bigger than the original 10/3 all season so laying is always a possibility.

3 pts Wigan to be relegated @ 2/1 (coral)

Best priced at 2/9 we are on a real winner with Wigan. They can’t put the ball in the net, are struggling to pick up points and will almost certainly be relegated.  2/1 now looks like a great price.

I was also pleased to avoid the promoted sides.  QPR are struggling however are still around 2/1 from odds on at the start and Norwich and Swansea – who both have been very impressive are 28/1! 

3 pt win Robin Van Persie to be Top Goalscorer @ 9/1 (betfair)

RVP is now 4/11 to scoop the Golden Boot and the bookies are almost paying out.  21 league goals already and at nearly a double figure price it looks as if our man will win this at a canter.  He has been fit all season and has almost single handedly kept Arsenal fighting – Robin I tip my cap to you.

1 pt e/w Jermain Defoe to be Top Goalscorer @ 40/1 (sporting bet & Paddy Power) – Not played enough games.  Still in the top 15 but won’t challenge the White Van Man for boots coated in Gold.

Original Article:

With the recent riots about as welcome as Rudi Voeller in a Dutch dressing room , the premiership season gets underway this weekend with some of the worlds greatest players returning to action along with a whole host of average ones.

 In previewing a season the hardest thing to gauge is how strong the promoted clubs are. Blackpool last year, dead certs for relegation drubbed Wigan on the opening day. their season was turbulent and they did end up dropping. This illustrates the value of punting early as a topsy turvy season can cause prices to shift quite dramatically. I am going to ignore the promoted clubs as they are all odds on and can back them at that price are seeing how poor they really are (or are not). I think Swansea will struggle but I think the two that might go with them may already be established in the prem. Blackburn are my first pick. Their form in 2011 was worse than all those clubs relegated. This sort of form would send any manager to the slaughter house and I expect Blackburns owners to have wrung Steve Keen’s neck by christmas leaving the Scotsman to run around heedlessly before returning to being a number 2 somewhere. Keen is favourite to be sacked first, yet Blackburn with Coral are 10/3 to be relegated. I think this is a good price – especially as their squad is getting thinner by the day and they may lose Samba (which I suspect they won’t now).

Roberto Martinez is a good, loyal manager who tries to play attacking , attractive football. Sadly at Wigan he has a side that are capable of neither. Rodallega, Cleverly and N’zogbia starred for the Latics last season and with only 1 of that triumvirate left, 2/1 (coral) also looks a good bet for them to slip into the cauldron of Championship next season. The promoted clubs often come up with hunger and desire for the challenge that is slowly ebbed away by tired legs and weary dilapidated squads. Lots of promoted teams have a competitive enough first 11 but usually lack strength in depth and once a few injuries take their toll they struggle. I think a few of the sides coming up may start brighter than teams like Wigan and Blackburn and therefore think it is worth condemning the Lancashire clubs to their Championship doom with their parachute on their back.

The top of the league looks more competitive than ever and with Man City buying the world, Liverpool strengthening and Arsenal signing more Theo Walcott’s, the league looks strong. Add to that mix, 6 strikers Chelsea who spent buckets in January on Shevchenko – MARK 2 and 5 strikers Tottenham, I am looking forward to some epic super Sundays. I normally rant at this point of the year at how Man United look weaker than ever and that I don’t rate their team and they usually go on to win the league. This year is quite the opposite. Their defence looks excellent and with Smalling and Jones as back up there is strength in depth. Their midfield is strong too and Ashley Young is set for a career defining season which I feel will help establish himself as an England regular. If they add Sneijder too their side is frightening and I feel Fergie is competing against Barca now and not the rest of the prem. 13/8 is their best price and I think they are a shoo-in.

The Golden Boot is also something I like to dabble in. In truth it isn’t that easy. Injury often rules out players chances. The top clubs rotate, so would Darren Bent be a good shout as he will probably play every game? Not at 11/1. I must admit to having backed Robin Van Persie at 12/1 a few weeks ago he is about 8/1 now which is a touch short but if (it’s a big if) he stays fit then he will play most games and will rack up the goals. Stuart Downing whipped in more crosses than anyone else last year, a repeat would see Andy Carroll in contention (20/1) however that price is because of his injury prone nature and I will stay clear of him. Of more interest is Jermain Defoe. Proven goalscorer, playing for a top 6 team, he is best priced 45/1 (betfair) or 40/1 (with an e/w market – Paddy Power). At longer prices Peter Odemwingie is 100/1 , if he produces the form of last year he may be up there and he takes penalties. His namesake Peter Crouch may move to Stoke and a regular berth there with some direct football could make his 100/1 look a big price too.

The best of the rest contains as per usual the top four’s cast offs. Steve Bruce has finally achieved his goal of establishing Sunderland as Man United B – cue return of Wellbeck on loan. Stoke aren’t happy with Fuller and Jones’ aerial prowess so are trying to add well needed inches in the box with Crouch or Bendtner to nod in crosses and throws. If they get Crouch they will be a decent side based on their FA cup run last year if, they get Bendter expect their relegation price to shorten – The potters would probably rather have Delilah up top. Villa, Everton and Bolton are likely to scrap hard and achieve nothing and if the latter don’t add to their squad they may be light on goals minus Sturridge.

It is intriguing these riots started shortly after Joey Barton started training on his own, read into that what you will but Newcastle have a season of over expectation and pointless optimism to overcome before they finally sack Pardew and Mike Ashley decides he could do the job better probably with a couple of mates who have won the lot on Championship Manager. Why not go the whole hog and put a pair of football boots on and slip into the number 9 shirt. Make Shearer proud. Talking of Championship Manager, is there any mileage in a new game Football owner? It seems like British football is a honey pot for these new owners – just ask Bryan Robson, he could get you in at a few clubs providing you buy him enough beers in the United club bar.

The total of foreign owners is detailed below and it is an increasing worry that the game slips out of the hardy roots it once thrived in and is as everyone continues to re-iterate a ‘business’ which we must ‘recognise in order to move with the times’ – Disappointing. Business style ownership can lead to financial security but in the most part causes corruption and a distancing from the reality of being a football fan…so basically FIFA!

Premiership – 12 foreign owners (including Lebron James at Liverpool apparently)

 Championship -15 foreign owners

The season is set for an interesting beginning, minus Spurs and Everton which is postponed due to the recent riots. But the show must go on and the Premiership is back and booming; despite foreign owners, rising ticket prices, rubbish kick off times, overpaid players who cheat on their gorgeous other halves and the return of Delia “letsbyhavingyou’ Smith its still the premiership and we bloody love it…what a bunch of suckers we all are.

Listening to the radio the other day I took objection to the comments of the expert “analyst” or so they are called…basically the guy who is in to support the commentator by chipping in every 5 minutes or so.  This is how the dialogue went;

“What do you think about Tottenham this season?  Have they got enough to maintain a title challenge or do they need to strengthen in the window” asked the commentator

“I think Tottenham have a good team and could challenge for the top 2 positions in the league.  If they could just add 2 or 3 players in the transfer window they would go close” stated the analyst competently.

“Interesting, where do you think they need to strengthen?  What sort of player do they need? ” Replied the commentator amiably.

Gareth Bale is leading Tottenham's assault on the Premier League

Cue completely flustered man desperately trying to bullshit his way out of the corner he put himself in.  ”Well um, um they definitely need a striker, probably a midfielder and another defender” He didn’t know because his response was a token and standard response to the question posed, “do you think Tottenham need to strengthen in January?”  I mean honestly this is an “expert” talking and what he serves up is another example of the parasitic cliche;  The parasitic cliche lives inside a lot of pundits and feeds of the non specific, repetitive and mundane feedback we hear on a weekly basis… and just when you think they can’t get lack any more incision and acuity out comes the cliche, evident in this case by the old “they need to strengthen in the window” line.  the analyst said they needed to strengthen because he felt it was the right thing to say, he didn’t really believe it or for that matter seem to really know whether they did or they didn’t.

It is true Tottenham have had an excellent season; they are exciting to watch, play with purpose, drive and pace that gets all football fans out of their seats.  ”I’d pay to watch Tottenham play” quoted David Moyes in the build up to their premier league game this week.  However their success has stemmed in my opinion from several things.  Firstly they have a good blend of youth and experience with an average age of their starting squad being 27 – One of the higher in the league, the players could be considered to be in their prime.  Certainly this seems true of Bale, Modric, Parker and several of the back 4.  They have used only 20 players (from starting) this season – the fewest in the premier league, indicating they have, by and large, kept key squad members fit and have been able to play something like their strongest team on a regular basis.  Couple an exciting and talented squad with limited injuries (I know all teams get injuries but star players like Bale have been largely injury free) and a manager willing to ‘have-a-go’ then you have a chance to be consistent and that is what Tottenham have done this season and what is pushing them up the pecking order – consistency.

Consistency comes from playing a similar team each week, the ability to remain constant and therefore replicate successful techniques and responses in new situations and different scenarios.  The players in turn gain confidence and motivation from this success, want and are able to to replicate it more frequently and therefore carry their confidence into their next performance.  My point is that the last thing you need is a £25 million player turning up on your doorstep with a forehead tattoo saying “the gaffa has to play his new signing”.  Similarly the thought of adding 2 or 3 players to an already tight unit half way through the season runs the risk of doing more harm than good; unsettling players, hampering the confidence of players and deflating a group, high on their own success thus far.  It is my contention that the window is far more profitable for teams who need an impact or a boost, a team for example who might be hovering around relegation, as opposed to a top four side who are looking to strengthen for maybe the title run in or a push for Europe.

Needless to say if the switch is made a reality, the player in question can often feel an even weightier expectation, especially if a large price tag carries them aloft into their new club amidst cries of him becoming the new club’s newest legend or indeed saviour.  You only have to look at the biggest exponent of the January flop; Fernando Torres.  The weight of the price tag seems to have pushed his already out of sorts form into further disarray.  I saw him play for Liverpool in the flesh and he was awesome, an admirable specimen who was stockier and more powerful than I expected and had the movement to disorientate the best defenders in the world, ask Nemanja Vidic.  However his arrival at Chelsea for whatever reason has not worked.  But he isn’t alone, strikers with big price tags are a big no no in the January ‘sales’.

A book I can highly recommend – Moneyball, is a fantastically astute look into the statistics associated with baseball and their implementation during the draft selection process that exists in US sport.  There are several players that, statistically, you should never invest your money in e.g. High School Pitchers who’s record, statistically is far worse than College pitchers.  However the word of mouth and subjective approach from scouts ensured that High School pitchers are often more fashionable for the ‘potential’ they possess.  Billy Beane (head coach of the Oakland A’s) would argue that he would prefer someone with proven form at a higher level (i.e. a college pitcher).  He would cheer every time a high school pitcher was drafted leaving his 1st choice draft picks (usually college players) left to be swept up by him and his statistical outlook.  In January, strikers are often bought for overinflated prices and brought in as ‘the answer’.  However I suspect there is someone out there cheering as loud as Billy Beane every time Roman Abramovich opens his Torres directed , new year chequebook.

I’m sure that same person could be heard laughing when;

-  Middlesborough signed Alfonso Alves for nearly £13 million in 2008.  His 10 goals in 48 appearances ensured Middlesborough were rightly relegated for their rashness and condemned Alves to a life of huge wages and cuban cigars in Qatari football.  At least someone benefitted!?

- Jose Antonio Reyes singed for £10 million by Arsenal.  Reyes was brought up in a caravan, dribbling around garden gnomes to learn his trade.  When he got his big move to England’s capital he was more concerned about a severe lack of understanding of English than producing on the pitch.  He found the words “score” and “goals” particularly difficult to comprehend.

-  Andy Carroll took the total of overpriced strikers moving last January to £85 million pounds.  In fairness it is probable a lot of pressure to think that despite your poor attitude off the field, anti social behaviour orders, burnt out cars and social and domestic issues you are valued at the same price as clean water for an African shanty town for the rest of their life.  To be fair he does remind me of a camel, maybe he would be of use in Africa after all.  £35 million is an investment Liverpool are still waiting on a return for.

- Georgios Samaras broke all of Manchester City supporters hearts by signing for them for £6 million in 2006.  His 8 goals in 53 matches screams SPL and thats where he ended up.

-  Real Madrid goal machine Fernando Morientes pitched up at Anfield in 2005 to deposit 8 goals in 41 games at a return of just under £1 million per goal.

-  Supersub and everyones favourite “did he really play for England” Michael Rickets and his £3.5 million move to Middlesborough.  Predictably 3 goals in 32 games saw him narrowly miss out on Euro 2004.

- Gianfranco Zola stumped up £9 million on Savio Nsreko.  Cue some very unhappy hammers as brescia’s loss was West Ham’s well loss as well.  10 games 0 goals and swift return flight to Florence to ply his trade in Seria B.

In fairness it isn’t just strikers, disasters such as Jean Alain Boumsong further epitomise the panic buying nature of January.  £8 million for a defender proven…in the SPL.  Who would have thought Graeme Souness, now an expert analyst on Sky Sports, would have the tactical nous and guile to pair him up with Titus Bramble…I can hear Billy Beane now, laughing his socks off.

Christophe Dugarry seems perplexed at the Premier League's panic buys

Ultimately it is clearly a time of caution but there have been some real success stories of the January transfer window since its introduction;

- Henrik Larson’s move to Man Utd was just the ignition Fergie needed in his squad and the Swede helped United achieve another premier league title.

- Christophe Duggarry gave Birmingham City a huge lift in 2003 and his 5 goals were memorable in keeping them in the premier league.

- Mikael Arteta, Ashley Young and Javier Masherano are other examples of players signed to have a big impact on clubs that aren’t quite at their peak.  You only have to look at the signing of Daniel Sturridge for Bolton last season, his goals were season defining and how they have missed him this year.  Sturridge along with Larson and Dugarry are illustrations of how January can be of use.  An inspiration not a flagship.  Mascherano, Arteta and Young portray a more circumspect approach of signing talented young players with huge potential for relatively little money compared to Torres and Carroll and allowing them time to blood in without the media hype of the ‘the £30 million saviour’ arriving.  It is in my opinion these type of players that is what the January window is used for, however every year some managers never learn.

Last January there was £225 million spent in the window on ‘squad strengthening’!!  And in my opinion for every Dugarry there seems to be a plethora of Torres’.   I will always allow myself a rye chuckle when the cash is splashed in large sums by clubs in January, even if football’s expert analyst and his parasitic cliche feels they definitely needed to ‘strengthen their squad in the window‘.

Someone who is not that in tune with football asked me today, not in a nasty way, why this player Gary Speed was getting so much media exposure?  There was no malice in the question and she indeed commented on how extremely sad the situation was however my response was immediate and unequivocal; ‘he was just one of those players who ways a bit of a legend, the sort of player most fans and managers would have happily had in their team’.  He wasn’t a Rooney or a Gazza but there wouldn’t be many managers who would have swapped him.

677 appearances, 103 goals for his 5 clubs to accompany his 85 National caps and 7 Welsh goals.  An MBE to match a glowing start in management for his beloved national team.  Enviably good looking, revered as a legend by all who knew him and those that didn’t.  I have never once cheered his name for club or country but when his name rang out at Swansea on Sunday there was a lump in my throat. Read More…

Episode 6 of the Sports Leviathan ‘things to do in football before you die’ is up on the Headers and Volleys website.  Click the link to read the first 6 entries

As I expand my entries on my own bucket list – Things to do in football before you die, let me know what entries you would like on yours.  Click on the link and join the debate.